Notes From Great Investors Best Ideas Conference (GIBI) Dallas 2017: Ackman, Einhorn & More

The 11th annual Great Investors Best Ideas (GIBI) Dallas Investment Symposium just took place where managers shared investment ideas to benefit The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and Vickery Meadow Youth Development Foundation.  Below are some brief notes on the event:


Notes From GIBI Dallas Conference 2017

David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital

Still owns a huge position in General Motors (GM) but has been trimming it since it's grown too large (risk management, position sizing, etc).  Still his largest position by a longshot though.  Still thinks it's very cheap and points to an opportunity for a new shareholder base to get into shares.  Likes they've gotten rid of its riskiest international business and is investing in autonomous cars and electric vehicles: the future.

He also likes Tempur Sealy (TPX).  Thinks estimates are way too low (notes that management's incentives are way higher).  The company had a dispute with Mattress Firm and stopped selling its mattresses there.  Despite that, customers still actively sought out the TempurPedic brand, so the co is replacing its lost Mattress Firm sales elsewhere at higher margins.  Thinks there's also a reasonable chance MF comes back to them since MF has lost sales.

Einhorn said that his 'bubble basket' of shorts in highflying tech stocks like Amazon and Tesla are valued like profits don't matter ... ever.  He says eventually people will wake up and profits will matter and their stocks will crater.  He also pointed to somewhat of a cult following status that is attached to Tesla's stock with all the hype that Elon Musk continuously builds with various projects.  There's around 30 stocks in Einhorn's bubble basket.   He noted he owns a Tesla, but also points out that the company probably lost $20-30k selling it.  Says company hasn't figured out how to make cars profitable on a unit basis.  You can also read Greenlight Capital's Q2 letter here.


Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital

Pitched his newest long: Automatic Data Processing (ADP).  Has an activist position.  Thinks it's a quality business: simple, not capital intensive, secular tailwinds (sees lots of growth ahead).  Automating employees.  Ackman thinks the stock's a double.  We've posted Ackman's presentation on ADP previously.

Also mentioned the GSEs he's involved with: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.  Still owns and thinks there's huge upside there.  He originally pitched these plays three years ago at the same conference.  Thinks they will eventually trade multiples higher of where they are now.

He's still short Herbalife (HLF) and has lost millions on the bet as the stocks' up around 40% from his average short price.  Said that of the risk factors considered for the position, Carl Icahn coming in and buying 20+% of the company wasn't one he considered.

Noted he still owns Howard Hughes (HHC) and while he doesn't see any immediate catalysts, thinks it's a long-term play as a high quality business.

Says average investor can be plenty concentrated with 10-15 holdings.  Biggest mistake of his career?  Not selling when new information emerged that didn't jive with his investment thesis.  You can read Pershing Square's Q2 letter here.



Tom Russo. Gardner Russo Gardner

Spoke about global brands and various companies still controlled by the founding families.  His best idea was the company hit with a scandal and PR crisis: Wells Fargo (WFC).  Previously he had noted how his WFC stake has remain unchanged (around 6% of his assets) and that he thought the company simply became too fixated singly on one variable (cross-selling) which lead to a bunch of accounts being opened in customers names.  The company now suffers from poor optics but on a risk level, direct financial harm has been modest and he has faith in the legal process.



Andrew Wellington, Lyrical Asset Management

A couple of picks:  Flex Ltd (FLEX), co is seeing double digit growth in its bottom line and 50% of FCF going to shareholders.  Trading around 12x earnings.

Affiliated Managers Group (AMG): asset management play, owns equity stakes in boutique management firms.  Says they own really good managers.  Trading around 12x NTM earnings.



Van Hoisington, Wasatch-Hoisington US Treasury Fund

He concluded that we're heading to a recession as the Fed has restrictive policies already in effect and money and credit are slowing noticeably.  Structural impediments to growth are over-indebtedness globally as well as adverse demographics.  Thinks rates will stay lower. 



Jeanie Wyatt, South Texas Money Management

A few ideas: Citigroup (C) as a value play.  Thinks it could re-rate from almost 1x book value to closer to 1.4x.  Since the crisis the company has a better situation and less subprime.

KAR Auction Services (KAR):  notes 20% EPS growth, end markets that are accelerating as well.  Trading just over 22x next year's earnings but with a big opportunity ahead as various leases will be coming to term.

Electronic Arts (EA): video game stock that's benefited from going over the top (OTT) as it leads to higher margins than the typical video game distribution model of physical games, etc.  Accelerating sales growth.  Also sees new potential upside in e-sports. 

Vodafone (VOD): Stock has traded sideways but the company has improved in end markets.  Thinks it offers good downside protection as sales growth has accelerated.


For more stock picks from recent investment conferences, we posted up notes from the Sohn San Francisco Conference yesterday.

Tiger Veda Starts EADS, Osram Licht Stakes: Q3 Letter

Manish Chopra's hedge fund Tiger Veda initiated a few new positions in the third quarter according to their Q3 letter.  Tiger Veda bought Osram Licht, EADS, and KAR Auctions Services.

Readers might already be familiar with Osram Licht because David Einhorn's hedge fund purchased it as well and mentioned it in Greenlight Capital's Q3 letter which we previously posted.  This lighting manufacturer was spun-off from Siemens and is a restructuring play.

Of their new EADS stake, Tiger Veda writes,

"EADS in France, the manufacturer of Airbus aircraft and various defense businesses, that we expect will grow earnings materially over the next 5 years, due to losses from old products going away, well executed high incremental margin product introductions hitting the tarmac, and a restructuring of the defense businesses post ridding the company (Board) of government supervisors (Directors), as they sold down their equity stakes to undergo an attempt at a transformation towards the profit margins of Boeing."

Chopra also purchased shares of KAR Auctions Services (KAR), a used car auctioneer.  

During the third quarter, Tiger Veda had average gross exposure of 114% and average net exposure of 68%.  Their top five holdings at the end of Q3 were Tribune, Macquarie Infrastructure, Royal Caribbean, Gencorp, and Air Lease.


For more Q3 hedge fund letters, head to:

- Dan Loeb & Third Point's Q3 letter

- David Einhorn & Greenlight Capital's Q3 letter

- Bill Ackman's  (Pershing Square) Q3 letter

- Cobalt Capital thesis on EOG Resources

- Hoplite Capital's Q3 letter

- Corsair Capital's thesis on News Corp

- Ruffer's Q3 letter

Corsair Capital Sees Increased Market Volatility Ahead (Q2 Letter)

Jay Petschek's hedge fund firm Corsair Capital Management finished the second quarter up 0.2% net, bringing them to up 6.2% for the year. They've turned in a solid 15.3% annualized return since 1991 and are one of our favorite funds to track.

Last quarter, we highlighted that Corsair anticipated increased M&A activity. Their second quarter letter focuses on the 2011 market landscape thus far and macro concerns.

They write, "there seems to be a delicate balance worldwide between stimulating economic growth and keeping prices of basic necessities within an affordable range ... we believe this uncertainty only increases general investor skittishness and market volatility."

Portfolio Updates

They also update their various positions by noting that they continue to expect Innophos (IPHS) to earn $5.00 of adjusted EPS in 2012, surpass market expectations, and trade at a 15x multiple. We've previously covered Corsair's bullish case on Innophos.

They continue to like their stake in Expedia (EXPE) as the company announced the impending spin-off of its TripAdvisor segment. The current issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter lays out the investment thesis on EXPE in detail for those interested.

Corsair also updated their stakes in Maiden Holdings (MHLD), KAR Auction Services (KAR), and Pace Oil & Gas (PCE). Their letter also includes a write-up on their new investment in TNS Inc (TNS).

Embedded below is Corsair's Q2 letter (email readers come to the site to view it):

ValueAct Capital Sells Gartner (IT) & KAR Auction Services (KAR) Shares

Jeffrey Ubben's activist hedge fund ValueAct Capital recently sold shares in two positions: Gartner (IT) and KAR Auction Services (KAR). ValueAct manages $5 billion and has earned a net annualized return of 13.5% over the last ten years.


Gartner (IT)

First, ValueAct sold 9,700,000 shares of Gartner (IT) at $34.44 per share. After this transaction, they still own 7,090,513 shares. This marks almost a 58% reduction in their position size (shares currently trade around $37.36).

At the end of 2010, IT was their third largest position behind only Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) and Sara Lee (SLE). But now with the sale, the position sits in the middle of their portfolio. This is the second time in six months they've sold shares of IT as they previously reduced their position in September.

KAR Auction Services (KAR)

Second, Ubben's hedge fund sold 1,350,000 shares of KAR Auction Services (KAR) with the bulk of the sale coming at $14.21 per share. After their sales, ValueAct was left with 908,828 shares. All told, it looks like they sold almost 60% of their position. The stock currently trades around $14.25.

ValueAct typically focuses on undervalued companies in the healthcare, technology, and information services sectors.

Companies' Background

Per Google Finance, Gartner is "an information technology (IT) research and advisory company. The Company is a partner to 60,000 clients in 10,000 distinct organizations in over 80 countries. The Company’s principal products and services are delivered through its Research, Consulting and Events segments."

KAR Auction Services is "a holding company. The Company is a provider of vehicle auction services in North America. It facilitates auction services for sellers of used, or whole car, vehicles and salvage vehicles, through its 214 physical auction locations and Internet venues."

Corsair Capital Management Investor Letter

Today we present you Corsair Capital Management's investor letter as part of our wisdom Wednesday series of documents and resources. Since inception in 1991, they've seen an annualized return of 15.4% and a total return of 1409%, very impressive numbers. Below you'll find the latest investor letter from Jay Petschek and Steven Major. They present their market outlook, summary of how their positions have fared, as well as the investment case for KAR Auction Services (KAR).

Embedded below is Corsair Capital Management's fourth quarter 2009 investor letter:




You can also download the .pdf here.

Head to our posts on recent investment partnership and hedge fund letters for more insight and investment ideas.

We're continuing our theme of 'wisdom Wednesday' here at Market Folly where we've been posting up insightful letters, research and resources from various sources. We've already posted up Bill Gates' 2010 annual letter, as well as Bill Gross' February investment outlook out of PIMCO, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch's hedge fund trend monitor report.