Don Coxe's Basic Points April 2010: A Slow Boat to China ~ market folly

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Don Coxe's Basic Points April 2010: A Slow Boat to China

Market Strategist Don Coxe is out with the latest edition of his Basic Points publication. His commentary entitled, 'A slow boat to China' focuses on his latest view on the markets and how he would position portfolios accordingly. As we've covered before, Coxe has been a long-time commodity and agriculture bull so it should come as no surprise that many of his recommendations center around that theme. To get a better idea as to the rationale behind a bullish agriculture bet, we recommend heading to hedge fund Passport Capital's case for agriculture.

Turning to Coxe's most recent market commentary, we see some of his main viewpoints summarized below:

- Underweight integrated oil companies ('big oil' stocks like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, etc).
- Increase equity exposure via mining stocks.
- Overweight oil producers and underweight gas producers.
- Continue to overweight oil sands companies.
- If running a US based portfolio, focus on cyclical equities.
- Within agriculture, add to companies in the equipment and logistics.
- Overweight precious metals (gold & silver).
- If you're investing in bonds, focus on Canadian bonds if you're Canadian and TIPs if you're American.

Lastly, he also lays out some ideas to 'hedge' yourself against a possible double-dip recession after the market stops receiving its heroin fix from Ben Bernanke. If you are holding high exposure to cyclicals, Coxe argues to hold some long-duration bonds as a hedge. We've obviously simplified his viewpoints here so of course read Donald Coxe's April set of Basic Points in its entirety below:

You can directly download a .pdf here.

Overall, it seems Coxe remains a staunch commodity bull, or dare we say super-bull. For a technical look at how some of his favorite commodities have been trading as of late, check out an analysis of gold as well as an analysis of crude oil.

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