Delivering Alpha Conference Notes: Richard Perry, Eric Mindich, Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz, Jeff Smith & More

The 2015 Delivering Alpha Conference hosted by Institutional Investor and CNBC is currently taking place and we wanted to highlight some of the thoughts from top investment managers on the best ideas panel and other panels.  Here's a brief summary of what each manager said:


Delivering Alpha Conference 2015 Notes

Richard Perry (Perry Capital): He feels Puerto Rico could possibly be the 51st state and thinks it's an interesting place to invest; he said GO bonds are safe and will trade at par. Perry argued that Greek bonds trading at 50 cents on the dollar could eventually return to par as there's a 'meaningful possibility' that a Greek bailout would actually be followed through.


Eric Mindich (Eton Park Capital):  He said that it's mostly individual investors in the turbulent Chinese A shares market.  He called the H shares more interesting.  He's a bit troubled by the future of the euro due to the situation in Greece.


Nelson Peltz (Trian Fund):  Peltz talked about his activist investment in DuPont (DD) and noted that he'd "rather be rich than right."  He continues to like PepsiCo (PEP) and thinks the company can deliver earnings growth each quarter but could do better.  Commenting on McDonald's (MCD), he said that the culture needs to be flipped on its head and it could take years.  Peltz feels Pentair (PNR) has the potential to become a platform company.  He said he has two new positions, one industrial and one he's not naming which account for 1/3 of his capital.  We recently highlighted some of Trian Fund's portfolio activity here.


Bill Ackman (Pershing Square): Ackman likes businesses that will withstand the test of time and he avoids tech since it's 'too dynamic.'  He mentioned that a lot of people haven't been talking about one of his newest investments: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and he really likes these.  Peltz chimed in that he doesn't know anything about the company but thinks Fannie is his favorite of Ackman's investments.  While some investors like Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme Fund) have played the preferred shares, Ackman has a large position in common stock.  He says it offers the most upside but also conceded that it has the most downside too.  Ackman also voiced concerns on China, citing leverage and lack of transparency.  He says that almost every company he owns today is some sort of 'platform company' and we've highlighted this concept via Ackman's presentation at the Sohn Investment Conference.


Jamie Dinan (York Capital):  He keeps a lower media profile so it's always good to get his thoughts.  He avoids leverage since he lost a lot on margin in 1987 which was a very valuable lesson for him.  His keys to success?  Go where the action is and respect risk parameters.  Dinan notes that if you're in a position and the rules change, that's when bad trades happen.  York has more than half its base in illiquid credit.  He likes Japan, noting that "The Bank of Japan is your friend" and valuations are good with possible corporate governance changes coming.  He compared Japan now to the US in the 1980s in an economic sense.  He noted they've invested $700 million in Indiana toll roads.  Dinan also said he likes Puerto Rico but not the GO bonds.  He prefers complex infrastructure plays.


Jeff Smith (Starboard Value):  He mentioned a new idea of his, Macy's (M).  He thinks you get the company 'for free' when you take out the EV of its real estate.  He values the real estate at around $21 billion and hopes to work with management as he thinks M is worth $125 per share.


Bill Miller (Legg Mason):  He continues to like airlines stocks, saying they're in a long-term uptrend.  He likes Delta (DAL).  Commenting on bonds, he said that there's a benign bond market.  He also loves Amazon.com (AMZN) which is his biggest position at 6%.  He also likes builders and they're a big part of his portfolio as well, as he thinks they'll earn around 20% a year.


Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital):  He doesn't think the Fed will raise rates in 2015.  He said he's fond of emerging market debt (dollar denominated) and some high yield bonds (a shorter-term view on the latter).  He thinks high yield bonds will be a 'debacle' in 3-4 years.  Regarding bond rates, he notes they're rising secularly and went on to say that this is a good thing which most people don't realize.  Bond portfolios want rates to rise since you can reinvest at higher rates.  Looking extremely long term, he thinks India is a great place to put cash for the next 50 years.  Lastly, he also mentioned that he's allergic to companies that don't make money (AMZN).  He mentioned he bought Annaly Capital (NLY) recently and is out of his Apple (AAPL) position.  You can hear more from Gundlach in his recent Wall Street Week interview.


Keith Meister (Corvex Capital): He pitched American Realty Capital Properties (ARCP), a name he's presented at previous conferences as well (he owns 8% of the company).  He thinks you're taking 'bond like' risk for 'equity like' returns with this one and that the stock will pop once they reinstate the dividend and sees 25-50% upside.  Our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter analyzed the company if you want to play catch up quickly.


Tom Sandell (Sandell Asset Management):  His best idea was Ethan Allen (ETH), a furniture retailer.  He notes the company has practically zero debt and could be an ideal private equity candidate for a takeover.


Paul Singer (Elliott Management):  He likened the situation in China to potentially worse than the subprime crisis.  He thinks that perception of securities there has been impaired and it's just 'wild.'  Authorities there are trying to sustain the market with all kinds of moves but confidence is damaged by some of these rules.  He said the 70% haircut that Argentina forced on bondholders was the most severe he's seen in a large economy.  Singer said his firm essentially manages risk by putting in a lot of effort, a hands-on approach (basically activism).

...

Check back for more updates later.

Great Investors' Best Ideas Dallas 2014 Notes: Ackman, Einhorn, Perry & More

The 2014 edition of Great Investors Best Ideas Dallas took place this week benefiting the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and the Vickery Meadow Youth Development Foundation.


2014 GIBI Dallas Notes



Bill Ackman (Pershing Square):  He was positive on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FNMA & FMCC), which have obviously seen volatility as of late.  They own 10% of each and are quite bullish.  They've been buying both and say private property can't be taken by the government.  Pershing owns common versus the preferred and think it's just as good of an investment.  Thinks there's an opportunity for settlement.


David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital):  He continues to like Micron (MU) and Apple (AAPL), and also really likes Greek banks.  AAPL/MU his 2 largest stakes.  Says DRAM has been a bad business for a while and should make $4 per share as the industry is only 3 players now after consolidation.  Likes Greek banks as they're at or below book value.  Also likes shorting French government bonds: Marine Le Pen wants to leave the Euro and bonds yield around 1%.


Richard Perry (Perry Capital):  Based on his pitch that was circulated a few months ago, Perry likes the idea of containerboard sponsored MLPs (they've owned International Paper (IP), KapStone Paper (KS), and Rock-Tenn (RKT)).  He also likes tax loss candidates of AIG (AIG) and Ally Financial (ALLY).  ALLY = Trading below book value but should trade 1x at least.  Government still owns 15%, last sold some @ $25, trades $22.50 now, should finish selling at year-end.  Also says Perry is appealing the Fannie/Freddie ruling and that this particular judge has been overturned a bunch.


T. Boone Pickens (BP Capital): He was positive on Marathon Oil (MRO) and Clean Energy (CLNE) again.  2 of his picks last year were up (FANG and BAS), except for CLNE which is down big.  He owns 20m shares, could be biased "pride of ownership".  Says he thinks we drill too much and US is only place that's growing production.  Likes MRO because it's cheaper on EV/EBITDA than peers like XOM and OXY.  Says we won't see $10 natural gas in his lifetime.


Michael Price (MFP Investors): 2 ideas (1 old, 1 new): Still likes Dolby (DLB, old idea).  55% of the company is owned by kids of the company.  PC sales dropped but have recovered.  Company can see new growth in India/China.  Undervalued stock, attractive to private equity and Apple.  Also likes FMC Corp (FMC), new idea.  Stock whacked on overreaction that company won't be splitting into two parts.  Thinks it trades $120 or so in next few years.


Tom Russo (Gardner Russo & Gardner): They like family controlled businesses.  Look for 50 cent dollars.  Focuses on global consumer stocks.  He was positive on Cie Financiere Richemont SA.


Paul Isaac (Arbiter Partners):  He likes Credit Agricole Regional Banks.  CMO, CRTO, CCN, CAF, CIV, CRSU.  40% price to tangible book value.  Well capitalized and inexpensive on relative basis.  Shorted French 10 yr bonds to hedge as there is euro risk.  Also pitched Japanese General Trading Companies.  8001.JP, 8002.JP, 8031.JP, etc.  Some 70% tangible book value, trading 6x PE.


Bill Miller (LMM): Buy the homebuilders as he likes the sector in general.  Specifically mentioned KB Homes (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM).  Market at new highs yet builders aren't even though they've got a nice clean path for earnings growth.  Says employment is the key and housing starts are improving.  He also said he likes Intrexon (XON).   This is a bet on management, who owns a huge chunk of the company.  Big upside but also could lose half your investment.


Ray Nixon (Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss):  He's positive on Q4 tax loss candidates, noting that many mutual funds end fiscally in October so there's various pressures that month, not to mention that it's one of the worst months historically.  Recommends buying across October, November and into December.  Buy a basket of tax loss names.  Pitched Mattel (MAT):  Stock's down over 30%, losing Disney license in 2016, losing shelf space, missed the past 3 quarters.  He says toy industry is growing 5%, likes the dividend yield, and points to $1b in cash on balance sheet.  They've started buying shares.

Perry Capital Trims North American Energy Partners Position Again

Richard Perry's hedge fund firm Perry Capital has filed an amended 13D with the SEC regarding its position in North American Energy Partners (NOA).  Per the filing, Perry has disclosed a 4.75% ownership stake in NOA with 1,726,968 shares.

This marks around a 62% reduction in their position size as they've sold over 2.8 million shares since the end of the third quarter.  The filing indicates they sold shares at a price of $6 per share on December 19th.

This is also the second time they've trimmed their stake, as we highlighted Perry's NOA sales back in late October.

Per Google Finance, North American Energy Partners "provides a range of heavy construction and mining and pipeline installation services to customers in the Canadian oil sands, industrial construction, commercial and public construction and pipeline construction markets. The Company’s primary market is the Canadian oil sands, where it supports the customers’ mining operations and capital projects. NAEPI provides services through all stages of an oil sands project’s lifecycle, its core focus is on providing recurring services, such as contract mining, during the operational phase."

Perry Capital Trims North American Energy Partners Position

Richard Perry's hedge fund firm Perry Capital has filed an amended 13D with the SEC regarding its stake in North American Energy Partners (NOA).  They've disclosed a 9.71% ownership stake in NOA with 3,526,968 shares.

This is a decrease of 23% in their position size since the end of the second quarter as they sold over 1 million shares. 

The filing details that Perry sold a bulk of shares on October 31st at $6.00 per share, with some other sporadic sales in late October as well.

Per Google Finance, North American Energy Partners "provides a range of heavy construction and mining and pipeline installation services to customers in the Canadian oil sands, industrial construction, commercial and public construction and pipeline construction markets. The Company’s primary market is the Canadian oil sands, where it supports the customers’ mining operations and capital projects. NAEPI provides services through all stages of an oil sands project’s lifecycle, its core focus is on providing recurring services, such as contract mining, during the operational phase."

You can view Perry Capital's other recent portfolio activity here.

Perry Capital Dumps Almost Half of J.C. Penney Stake

Richard Perry's hedge fund firm Perry Capital yesterday filed an amended 13D with the SEC regarding shares of J.C. Penney (JCP).  Per the filing, Perry has disclosed a 3.28% ownership stake with 10 million shares of JCP.

This means that Perry has dumped almost half of the JCP position they recently took.  Their latest filing shows they sold shares on September 27th at prices ranging from $9.02 to $9.5887.  This is around the time J.C. Penney announced that they would be issuing a ton of stock. 

When Perry initially took the stake, we pointed out that they were already down on the position as they started buying around $17.77 and added again around $14.86.  Then, a month later, they bought some of the shares that Bill Ackman was liquidating at around $12.90.  Then, as illustrated above, Perry capitulated and sold almost half of their stake in the $9's.

Things have only gotten worse as JCP now trades around $8.76.  While Perry has had a quick about-face on their JCP position size, it remains to be seen if they'll retain the rest of their shares. 

J.C. Penney has quickly become somewhat of a hedge fund graveyard.  Other hedge funds have been involved as well, such as Glenview Capital and Soros Fund.   And last month, we also highlighted that Kyle Bass' Hayman Capital had also started a J.C. Penney position.  We'll have to see if any of these other managers have a change of heart as well.

Kyle Bass Discloses J.C. Penney Stake; Perry Buys Some of Ackman's Shares

If you aren't tired of hearing about J.C. Penney yet (JCP), here's even more hedge fund activity in the name:

Kyle Bass Starts J.C. Penney Stake

First, a 13G filed with the SEC has revealed that Kyle Bass' Hayman Capital owns a 5.2% stake in J.C. Penney (JCP) with over 11.4 million shares. This is a brand new position for the hedge fund as they did not own any JCP at the end of the second quarter.


Perry Buys Ackman JCP Shares 

Recently, we highlighted how Richard Perry's hedge fund Perry Capital had taken a position in JCP.  Well, they've since added to that position.  We also flagged how Bill Ackman was exiting his JCP stake and as it turns out, Perry was one of the buyers, purchasing 3 million shares at $12.90.  They now own around 8.62% of the company

This whole JCP saga will make for a very interesting investing/business school case study one day.

Perry Capital Files 13D on J.C. Penney & Sends Letter to the Board

Richard Perry's hedge fund firm Perry Capital has just filed a 13D with the SEC regarding shares of J.C. Penney (JCP).  Per the filing, Perry now owns 7.26% of JCP with 16,000,000 shares.  This is a brand new position for the hedge fund.

The filing was required due to activity on August 9th.  However, Perry started buying JCP shares as early as June 12th at $17.77 and throughout July and into August.  Their most recent disclosed purchases come on August 1st at around $14.86.

Perry owned 12 million JCP shares as of June 30th, and then has purchased an additional 4 million shares since then.  With the slide in JCP shares down to current levels of $12.81, Perry is already down on this position.


Perry's Letter to JCP's Board

Below is the letter Richard Perry sent to the Board of Directors today:

"August 9, 2013

Dear Mr. Engibous and the J. C. Penney Company Board of Directors,

Perry Capital currently owns shares representing beneficial ownership of 7.26% of J. C. Penney Company. Shareholders and creditors have increasingly lost confidence in the company, as evidenced by the recent significant decline in the company’s stock and bond prices.  This market reaction is particularly alarming given the company’s meaningful improvement in liquidity following its $2.25 billion term loan financing. We strongly urge the Board to take immediate and proactive steps to improve the financial and operational management of the company.

Assuming recent press reports are accurate, Perry Capital would be very supportive of a return to the company by Allen Questrom and Ken Hicks. While we appreciate Mike Ullman’s willingness to assume the interim CEO role at a critical juncture, we believe it is imperative that the Board promptly establish a Board and management structure that provides the company the greatest chance for success. We believe that immediately appointing Allen Questrom Chairman of the Board and Ken Hicks CEO is imperative at this juncture, and we anticipate that the company’s various constituents would be highly supportive of such a change. In the words of Citigroup retail analyst Deborah Weinswig in a publicly available research note:  “Questrom + Hicks = Dream Team” (Dear Board of Directors, Time is of the Essence! August 9, 2013).

Given the urgent nature of the situation, I am releasing this letter publicly so that other shareholders who feel the same way can express their opinions directly to the Board. 

Sincerely, Richard Perry"

Are These The Next Warren Buffetts? Wisdom From Klarman, Perry, Chanos & More

Fortune recently republished an article that originally appeared in the 1989 issue of Fortune magazine.  "Are These The New Warren Buffetts?" was written by Brett Duval Fromson and highlights investors from that period who were thought to be talented enough to match the investing acumen of Warren Buffett.  Twenty-plus years later, the article accurately pinpointed some amazing investors.

The article identified the following (at the time) young investors:

- Seeking Subtle Signs of Value: Seth Klarman (Baupost Group)
- The Bargain Hunter: Michael Price (MFP Investors)
- Turning Value Upside Down: Jim Chanos (Kynikos Associates)
- A Formula For Deals: Richard Perry (Perry Partners)
- Pairing Value With Arbitrage: Eddie Lampert (ESL Investors)
- A Freudian Grahamite: Randy Updyke
- The Passionate & The Skeptical: Glenn Greenberg & John Shapiro (Chieftain Capital)
- A Scientist on Wall Street: Thomas Sweeney (Fidelity)
- Mr. Preservation of Capital: John Constable (Constable Partners)
- Mr. & Mrs. Aggressive: Jim and Karen Cramer


Wisdom From The "Next Buffetts"

As you can see, the list highlights some gems.  However, the best part of the article is that each investor shared some rare nuggets of wisdom regarding their approach that we wanted to draw attention to:


Seth Klarman: "Klarman's exceptionally quick and subtle mind allows him to see value in many different guises.  With stocks high, he looks for 'market-insensitive opportunities.'  By that he means companies whose financial performance depends on bankruptcies, announced mergers, liquidations, restructurings, or spinoffs -- corporate events largely independent of the vagaries of the financial markets."  Klarman focuses on the downside, saying: "I focus on what could go wrong.  Before buying, we always ask ourselves, 'what would we pay to own this company forever.' "  For more from this great investor, we've posted up Seth Klarman's recommended reading list.


Michael Price: "I like cheap stocks.  I'm basically a guy who looks at a company's balance sheet and asks, 'what is the company worth? Give me a number.'  If the answer is, 'Substantially more than the price,' then I get interested."


Richard Perry: "His investment approach? E(V) = {P(UPx) + [(1-P) (DPx)]} / (1 + COF).  That simply means he values a deal by calculating the odds that it will go through, how long it will take, and what the investment is worth with and without the deal.  Why all the effort to quantify?  Says Perry: 'There are no lay-ups in the arbitrage business.  This helps us maintain clear, high standards for buying a deal.' "  For more thoughts on this strategy from well-known investors, we've also posted up John Paulson on the risk in risk arbitrage.


Jim Chanos: "Chanos is in truth a perverse kind of value investor.  Using the same techniques as the others, he looks for overvalued stocks.  He stays mainly in large-capitalization issues.  That way there is more liquidity and thus less chance of a short squeeze, which would force him to liquidated his position because he could no longer borrow shares from brokers."  For more on his approach, we've posted up Chanos on the psychology of short selling as well as Chanos on the power of negative thinking.


Eddie Lampert: "Arbitrage helps our value investing.  If we can earn 20% to 25% annualized returns in arbitrage, then for the long term we can buy only stocks that we think will earn comparable rates of return.  Conversely, if deal stocks get overpriced, we will begin investing in companies with good long-term prospects at low prices." 


Randy Updyke: "Investing is about survival.  I stay away from the herd.  I like to buy things for a lot less than I think they are worth.  But to me the psychology and mood of the market are more important than anything."


Thomas Sweeney: "People always panic.  If you study this phenomenon over time, you see that eight times out of ten you make money by buying into a panic."



Be sure to check out the full re-published version of the Fortune article, where you can see Chanos rocking a sweet mustache and other great vintage pictures.

Delivering Alpha Global Opportunities Panel: Perry, Briger, Mendillo & Erdoes

Today we're posting up highlights from CNBC & Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha Conference.  We've already posted up the best ideas panel and the chase for yield panel, now we're posting up the global opportunities panel featuring Perry Capital's Richard Perry, Fortress' Peter Briger, Harvard Management's Jane Mendillo, and JPMorgan's Mary Callahan Erdoes.


Richard Perry (Perry Capital):  The hedge fund founder thinks the ECB will keep pumping liquidity into the system, straight to banks rather than governments.  He actually feels the crisis in Europe has been blown out of proportion (at least the extent of it) and it will be a smoother recovery than expected.  Perry feels the euro will survive.

Perry said he likes Italy and Spain sovereign debt but emphasized that he's a trader and could change his mind as fast as tomorrow and also said that "at the end of the quarter, you can't have Spain and Italy on your books."  (Related: we've highlighted how Dan Loeb's Third Point has been long Portuguese sovereign debt.)  Perry noted they've been worried about Spain for three years now.  He also says that in Washington they need to focus on spurring mortgage lending and focusing on immigration reform.


Peter Briger (Fortress):  Briger disagrees with Perry and feels that European bank balance sheets have lots of risk assets that haven't been priced appropriately, saying there's still a lot to work through (debt).  He basically wants to get excited about these opportunities but says prices aren't intriguing enough (cash is still king right now for him).  He says we're in a "period of transitional finance."  His favorite play is financial services "garbage collection" over the next 5 years.  He also mentioned that if he was a long-only investor, he'd be intrigued by the US mortgage market.


Jane Mendillo (Harvard Management Co):  She noted how she's seeing a lot of investors looking for distressed credit in Europe, almost in a frenzy, as there's more dollars than opportunities.  They are not piling in now but are indeed looking at long-term opportunities.  Her favorite space right now is natural resources as she thinks there's still inefficiencies there: farmland, energy, water, timberland, infrastructure.


Mary Callahan Erdoes (JPMorgan):  The CEO of JPMorgan Chase Asset Management said her top pick is to short the Euro.  Coming off a trip to Asia, she notes that investors over there are still looking at US opportunities. She also said that "buy and hold" is definitely dead.  Erdoes made the case for European equities (with an emphasis on luxury), calling it a stock picker's market.


Sources: Notes from readers, II's blog, @iimag, @ldelevingne, @footnoted, @aarontask


For more from the Delivering Alpha Conference, head to a summary of the best ideas panel featuring Leon Cooperman, Jim Chanos as well as the hunt for yield panel featuring Marc Lasry.

Richard Perry: Long GSE Junior Preferreds, RBS Tier 1 Securities (Invest For Kids Chicago Notes)

At Invest For Kids Chicago yesterday, Richard Perry of Perry Capital gave a presentation on going long GSE Junior Preferred securities as well as RBS Tier 1 Securities.

Be sure to check out all notes from Invest For Kids Chicago where numerous high profile hedge fund managers shared their latest investment ideas.


Long GSE Junior Preferred Securities

Perry founded his firm 23 years ago and now manages $8 billion. He's only had 1 down year in 23 years. His first pick was to go long GSE Junior Preferred Securities as a highly asymmetric play.

Many people believe GSE's are the cause of the crisis and represent and endless black hole to the taxpayer and numerous politicians have called for their elimination. Perry takes the opposite view and believes GSE's will soon be breakeven and/or in a position to recapitalize themselves. He argues they provide necessary counter cyclical liquidity.

At 8.5 cents on the dollar, Perry thinks they offer asymmetric risk reward for huge upside. By changing the guarantee fee "a little bit," the CBO says they could raise $30 billion for each 10bps increase in fee and that could reopen the mortgage market and spur the economy (could happen over 2-3 years).


Long RBS Tier 1 Securities

Perry's other idea was going long securities of a bank that was at one point the largest in the world. In 2008 & 2009, RBS underwent a big housecleaning. Their Tier 1 securities have 'must-pay' dividends and 'may pay'. 'May pay' was shut off with the bailout through 2014 and trades at a 25-35% discount. This is the security he likes.

With Basel 3, core Tier 1 are likely to go away. All "real banks" will buy back to take off balance sheets. There's £10 billion of these and he expects them to turn on in 2012 (April for RBS and January for Lloyds).

Perry says that RBS' balance sheet is restructuring and you must analyze loan to deposits. US is roughly 95% and Italy is 120% to 150%. The UK has a government asset protection scheme where if RBS has a loss of ~60 billion, the government backstops other pool.

Systematically important banks trade at 7% yield on preferred stocks (Bank of America, Barclays, SocGen, BNP, UBS). If RBS pays the dividend they save 80 bps on funding (where better banks are) or 6 billion and pays 400 million in dividends which he says is good arbitrage.

For more of our coverage of Perry Capital, we've detailed Perry's investment thesis on Iron Mountain (IRM) as well as their thoughts on European markets.


You can view full notes from Invest For Kids Chicago here.

Perry Capital's Investment Thesis on Iron Mountain (IRM)

Hedge fund Perry Capital's recent letter to investors outlines why they added to their existing position in Iron Mountain (IRM) in the second quarter. We also posted up Perry's thoughts on credit in another post. Regarding their equity stake in IRM, Perry writes,

"The company’s main business is physical document and data tape storage where it has the #1 market share. In part due to the urging of a shareholder, the company is engaging in a series of changes that should unlock value and drive returns to shareholders. We believe management’s commitment to the shareholders, new board appointments, reductions in capital expenditures, the recent sale of its non-core digital business, rationalization of its international operations, and potential conversion to a REIT all bode well for shareholder value creation. Along with the defensive nature of the business model, management has committed to return $2.2bn of cash to shareholders by 2013 (equal to one third of its market capitalization). This should provide adequate downside protection in an uncertain market environment."

Perry Capital 767 Fifth Avenue New York, NY 10153
212-583-4000 investorrelations@perrycap.com

Perry Capital: European Markets to Provide Credit Opportunity in Coming Months

Richard Perry's hedge fund firm Perry Capital returned -0.93% in the second quarter and is up 2.69% for the year. The firm now manages $8.6 billion and has used the market volatility to add to their positions in their highest conviction names.

In a past investor letter, we highlighted how Perry saw a growing amount of event-driven opportunities. Their second quarter letter to investors outlines why they sell existing positions:

1. more compelling opportunities are created by the markets
2. a position reaches value
3. our original thesis is refuted based on newly uncovered data.

Perry also writes, "we are comfortable holding higher cash levels when we see potential opportunities on the horizon. The European sovereign debt crisis could be the cause of the next market dislocation."


Credit Positions

The hedge fund's letter mentioned their position in preferred securities of government sponsored enterprises (GSE's) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As 90-day delinquencies have been steadily declining, Perry feels the US taxpayers could recoup the $164 billion preferred investment. In the past we've pointed out how Michael Kao's Akanthos Capital Management likes GSE preferreds as well.

Perry also believes that peripheral European markets will be a 'robust' credit opportunity over the upcoming months. Additionally, Perry utilized the June sell-off to add "a small amount of structured credit to the portfolio with a particular focus on asset-centric instruments."


Equity Positions

The hedge fund sold their position in Equinox Minerals as Barrick Gold (ABX) purchased the company and after Zambian approval, Perry tendered its shares into the offer. They also exited their position in Swiss pharmaceutical company Actelion (ETR:ACT) after a failed attempt by an activist shareholder and a disappointing jury verdict.

They also added to their existing position in Iron Mountain (IRM). You can view Perry Capital's thesis on Iron Mountain here.


For more recent hedge fund letters, we've also posted up:

- Ivory Capital's thoughts on why value investing isn't working in this market

- Dan Loeb & Third Point's Q2 letter

- Oaktree Capital & Howard Marks' thoughts on the US debt ceiling

- Corsair Capital's Q2 letter

- David Einhorn & Greenlight Capital's letter

Delphi Automotive Going Public, Hedge Funds Look to Cash In

Auto parts maker Delphi Automotive has been in bankruptcy purgatory for years. That's about to change. The company filed for an initial public offering on Wednesday and set an initial $100 million target. This is an important development mainly due to the high concentration of prominent hedge funds that own stakes.


Heavy Hedge Fund Involvement

David Tepper's Appaloosa Management was originally one of the main sponsors of Delphi's reorganization plan in 2005 but pulled out and things fell through. Fast forward four years later and new hedge fund owners Silver Point Capital and Elliott Management took control of the situation as the company finally looked to complete the cleansing process through reorganization.


Greenlight Capital Takes Stake

As far as other current hedge funds involved, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital recently took a stake in Delphi as noted in their recent letter to investors. The hedge fund wrote,

"Delphi Automotive is an automotive supplier that produces a broad range of highly engineered products for powertrain, safety, electronic and thermal technology solutions. Delphi exited bankruptcy in October 2009 and has emerged in very good shape, following an aggressive restructuring in which it sold 11 businesses, closed 41 sites, reduced its U.S. workforce from 46,000 to 5,000 and moved its hourly pension plan and other post- employment benefits obligations to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) and General Motors (GM). In addition, emerging markets have increased from 7% to 25% of sales.

The Partnerships established a position at an average price of $19,228 per share. To date, Delphi’s multiple class ownership structure has limited its ability to go public. However, on March 31, 2011, Delphi repurchased shares from both GM and the PBGC for $4.4 billion, thereby creating a one class structure. There has since been press speculation that Delphi will pursue a public offering later this year. As Delphi potentially re-enters the public market, we hope that the company will gain value recognition for the significant progress it has made through its restructuring. Delphi stock ended the quarter at $21,500 per share."


Dan Loeb's Third Point Owns Large Position

As noted in our recent post on Third Point's latest exposure levels, Delphi was one of their top positions as of the end of April. The hedge fund has owned a sizable stake for quite some time, so it will be interesting to see when they decide to eventually shed their stake.


Perry Capital Involved in the Past (Still Involved?)

Perry Capital originally purchased claims in Delphi late in the bankruptcy process. And in its fourth quarter 2010 letter to investors, the hedge fund had this to say about its stake in auto parts maker: "Our position in Delphi equity continued to march higher. The company has performed quite well since exiting bankruptcy and, despite significant appreciation, we continue to hold our position. Delphi is well positioned as an automotive supplier - diesel, power train, safety and infotainment - with the best balance sheet in the industry."


When Will They Cash In?

Given that Delphi is not yet publicly traded and that Perry hasn't mentioned it in other letters, it's hard to say if they still own a position two quarters later. Greenlight's commentary, on the other hand, makes it sound like they will hold through the IPO in hopes of further upside through market revaluation.

Regardless, there are a lot of other hedge funds involved that are glad to finally see Delphi emerge from its drawn-out bankruptcy process and go public. The question is, how many of them will be cashing in?

Perry Capital: Bargains Not As Plentiful, But Growing Amount of Event-Driven Opportunities

Richard Perry's hedge fund firm Perry Capital is out with its 2010 year-end letter to investors and Perry Partners International finished last year up 16.21% (more 2010 hedge fund returns here). Perry's letter places emphasis on the fact that they don't necessarily abide by economic forecasting as much as other market participants. Instead, they focus on event-driven value investing in both equities and debt and have seen an annualized rate of return of 12.28%.

Perry's Targeted Investments

The hedge fund seeks to invest in securities that fall into various categories:

- "Capture most of the bell curve's area as a positive outcome for our investments"

- "Look for securities that do not suffer huge losses from unfavorable future economic outcomes (truncate the left tail)"

- "Buy securities that offer outsized rewards versus risk on favorable outcomes (bulging right tail)"

- "Find investments with little or no correlation to the economy that have positive expected value"

Looking Ahead in 2011

For this year Perry notes that, "Bargains are not as plentiful and dislocations are fewer today than a year ago. However, there is a growing amount of event-driven investing as we start 2011. Expectations about GDP growth and the market are almost euphoric ... This remarkable rally, as usual, has led investors to be more comfortable with the market at these higher levels than at the bottom. That is the nature of the market."

Potential Risks

As such, Perry Capital maintains numerous hedges on potential tail risk events. Baupost Group's Seth Klarman has done the same. Perry has protection against: European sovereign and banking issues, inflation in developing markets, and they are also concerned about the US Treasury and municipal bond markets.

Perry is not alone in their worry as we pointed out fellow hedge fund Kleinheinz Capital also thinks inflation is the biggest threat to emerging markets. Perry is particularly concerned about food and energy inflation and notes that increases in wage and input costs are resulting in higher finished product prices.

Fourth Quarter Portfolio

Below are excerpt's from Perry Capital's letter regarding some of their investments:

"Our position in Delphi equity continued to march higher. The company has performed quite well since exiting bankruptcy and, despite significant appreciation, we continue to hold our position. Delphi is well positioned as an automotive supplier - diesel, power train, safety and infotainment - with the best balance sheet in the industry." Market Folly readers will recall that Dan Loeb's hedge fund Third Point also owns Delphi.

"Universal American (UAM) was also one of our top performers in the fourth quarter. On December 31st, UAM stock increased approximately 40% on the news that CVS Caremark had agreed to acquire UAM's Medicare Part D plan for $1.25 billion. Subject to shareholder approval (likely in Q2 2011), UAM shareholders will receive $12.80-$13.00 for the Part D plan along with one share of the NewCo (remaining Medicare Advantage business), which will have approximately $8 per share of statutory capital upon separation."

Perry also had previously invested in Potash (POT) during the company's potential takeover by BHP Billiton (BHP). They exited their position before the Canadian government opposed the offer, anticipating (and jumping in front of) a potential heavy hedge fund sell-off. They were subsequently able to re-buy.

"We were able to re-establish a sizeable position after the arbitrage sell off at $138-139 per share, and hedged it using comparable companies that had traded up during the recent strong commodity price move. Fundamentals have continued to improve for Potash and we maintain a position in the shares." Dan Loeb's Third Point also has a sizable stake in Potash.

Lastly, Perry Capital invested in the AIA initial public offering (IPO), a wholly owned subsidiary of AIG (AIG). We've detailed how Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital also bought AIA in the IPO. Perry writes,

"AIA is a unique asset with hard-to-duplicate exposure to underpenetrated Asian markets that have had a high growth profile ... In our view, the IPO came at a meaningful discount to fair value due to i) its size, ii) poor execution during 2008-2009 due to issues associated with AIG, and iii) the AIG overhang caused by its remaining stake. Our investment paid off as AIA got rerated relatively quickly after the IPO."

That wraps up the main takeaways from the hedge fund's letter. Keep in mind of course that you can view Perry's latest portfolio in the new issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter in a couple of weeks.

Perry Capital Exits Citigroup (C): Second Quarter Letter

Perry Capital is out with their second quarter letter and in it we see some intriguing portfolio news. Perry Partners International exited their entire equity position in Citigroup (C) in the second quarter. While they still think it is an "interesting leveraged play on worldwide economic recovery", Perry feels they had to take the position off due to price appreciation and renewed concerns regarding financial reform, among other things. This news becomes all the more interesting when you consider that Dan Loeb's hedge fund Third Point sold out of Citigroup in the first quarter. At the same time, Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square started a new stake in Citi. Such a divergence of prominent minds is what makes a market.

Perry ended the second quarter up 1.87% and is up 9.08% net year to date versus a -11.4% performance for the S&P 500. Some of their largest winning positions on the quarter included short European exposure, as well as investments in Chrysler and Barneys. In the second quarter, Perry also reduced their structured credit investment as "prices reached levels where forward yields were too low relative to risk to warrant maintaining these positions." They ratcheted their exposure down to only 3% of the portfolio from a peak of 14%.

One other portfolio maneuver worth highlighting is the fact that Perry Partners reduced risk in the portfolio as they are very concerned about the European banking system. The hedge fund ended the second quarter with 36% cash and cash equivalents. They will wait to deploy this when attractive opportunities arise in special situations in equity and credit.

In terms of portfolio exposure levels, we see that they are long equities to the tune of 23.94% and short equities by -15.39%, leaving them only 8.55% net long equities. This reaffirms what we've already seen from various data: hedge funds have below average net long equity positions. Perry's largest long exposure by far comes in corporate credit.

Perry also reveals that the majority of their hedges are "long volatility" positions, stakes that were obviously very beneficial to them during the market declines in May and June. While their hedge in Japan has not worked for them recently, they still feel the payoff profile is compelling.

Their letter ends by highlighting the extreme correlation in the markets. They note that such conditions are very difficult for typical hedge funds and they are placing an emphasis on nimbleness and portfolio positioning to guide them through. This echoes the same sentiment that market strategist Jeff Saut recently voiced when he said that risk adjusted stock selection was the key to navigating this correlated market.

Embedded below is Perry Partners International letter from the second quarter:



You can download a .PDF copy here.

We'll be posting up intriguing manager commentary as the Q2 letters continue to roll in, so be sure to stay up to date with our hedge fund portfolio tracking series.

Hedge Fund Perry Partners' Annual Letter

Below you will find the annual letter from Richard Perry's hedge fund Perry Partners International. Perry seeks to achieve low correlations to the equity markets while still delivering strong returns. Their annual letter focuses both on their performance from the past year as well as their outlook going forward. Turning to some of their specific positions, we see that they have been active in both the credit and equity arenas.

Credit

They built a position in General Motors unsecured bonds, GM corporate bonds (issued by the parent entity) and GM Nova Scotia bonds over the past few quarters. They also purchased claims in Delphi late in the bankruptcy process. They made a lot of investments in the auto and auto parts sector as they felt the potential upside far outweighed the downside.

Equities

They've been fond of managed care stocks but have scaled back their positions slightly to lock in gains. Managed care is still 5% of their portfolio though. They were also adding to their Palm (PALM) position on the fourth quarter sell-off. They believe Palm "has an excellent operating system and will continue to gain traction with the carriers. That being said, our fears around competitive pricing in the smartphone area led us to increase some of our hedges in this area." This is interesting as we've now seen Perry long Palm, and we had previously seen Whitney Tilson's hedge fund T2 Partners had been short Palm.

Perry Partners' investor letter in its entirety is a must-read. RSS & Email readers will need to come to the site to read the letter.




Great insight from Perry Partners and we look forward to following the developments of some of their positions. In the past, we had presented Perry's second quarter 2009 letter as well, so it's good to see their more updated insight. We've been posting a ton of hedge fund investor letters as of late, so make sure to check those out.