Steve Einhorn - Omega Advisors Interview on Boyar Podcast

Steve Einhorn of Omega Advisors was recently interviewed on The World According to Boyar Podcast.  Einhorn has been Lee Cooperman's longtime partner at the firm, which recently converted into a family office.


Steve Einhorn Interview on Boyar Podcast

-  Omega runs long/short, primarily in the US with average exposure in developed economies.  Would prefer 15% lumpy return than a 8% non-lumpy return.

- They also spend a lot of time on macro thinking and strategy to combine with their equity research.  They assess a number of factors: economic activity, earnings growth, monetary/fiscal policies, valuation, supply and demand, etc.

-  This helps them determine what exposure they want in the portfolio.  If they're constructive overall, they're willing to take more stock specific risk.  They're bottom-up stock pickers, but if a macro outlook leans certain ways, they can look to take more exposure to a certain sector.  They'll also sell options premium in certain instances.

- On position sizing: they first look at liquidity as they don't want to be so large in a name that they can't get out without disturbing the market.  The second is the risk/reward associated with a given name.  A large long for them is 3-5% of assets and large short would be 1-2%.

-  They'll exit a stock if it meets their stock price target and upside is diminished, or if they were simply wrong on their assessment of fundamentals, or if there's another stock in the sector that's more attractive.

-  Currently he likes the tech sector (software) due to rapid growth in revenue and cashflow.  They see moats around many of these names allowing them to keep pricing flexibility.  They think global growth will be less than it has been historically, and in this environment they want to be invested in growth names, as tech names are often independent of the business cycle.  Not to mention, the multiples they're paying is not excessive in their view.

- Another sector they like is industrials as a synchronized global economic expansion will benefit some of these companies.  They like the position in the cycle.  They also like financials, feels they're cheap relative to tangible book and can see high dividend growth.  In the energy sector, oil prices have ramped up, but some of those stocks haven't reflected that.

- They're not interested in utilities or telecom names, anything interest rate sensitive.  Consumer staples is another area that "looks expensive to them on a multiple basis relative to underlying growth prospects."


Steve Einhorn's Bear Market Checklist

Five items are almost always present at the end of a US bull market and the start of a bear market.  The five are:

1)  Problematic inflation:  if wage inflation is around 3.5% it's a problem (it's currently well below that).  Also watch core consumer prices (you'd need to see consumer inflation in excess of 2.25%)

2)  A hostile Federal Reserve:  raising rates well above the neutral rate of 2.5-3% causes a hostile Fed (currently below that).  Thinks they'll gradually lift rates.

3)  Prospect of recession: "virtually nothing we look at shows the economy in the US is prone to a recession anytime soon."

4)  Investor sentiment:  climbing a wall of worry.  Currently doesn't think it's excessive or speculative.

5)  Valuation: When it becomes extended relative to interest rates and inflation.  Current multiples aren't extended in relation to interest rates.  Modestly above long-term average.


- Sees forward equity returns of 7-9%.  "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die because they are murdered by the Federal Reserve.  Our Federal Reserve is not in a murderous mentality given tame inflation and moderate economic growth."


For other recent podcasts, we've also previously highlighted Boyar's interview with Chris Mayer, the author of 100 Baggers.

Embedded below is the podcast audio of Boyar's interview with Steve Einhorn:



Email readers:  Click here to listen

If you missed it, we also posted up complimentary equity research from Boyar on Charter Communications (CHTR), Franklin Resources (BEN), and SunOpta (STKL). 

What We're Reading ~ 10/3/2018

The decision matrix: how to prioritize what matters [Farnam Street]

Sustainable sources of competitive advantage [Collaborative Fund]

Deep dive on wireless future: 5G [Axios]

How Shopify is the platform powering the direct-to-consumer revolution [Digiday]

Why Google Fiber is high-speed internet's most successful failure [HBR]

Pulling back the curtain on how SoftBank's massive Vision Fund works [TechCrunch]

A pitch on Yelp [Barrons]

Inside the world's fastest growing food delivery service [Eater]

Food delivery apps are impacting your favorite restaurants [Democrat & Chronicle]

How seltzer/sparkling water is upending coffee and beer [WSJ]

App-only banks rise in Europe and aim at traditional banks [NYTimes]

For some platforms, network effects are no match for local know-how [HBR]

David Rubenstein interviews Amazon's Jeff Bezos [YouTube]

How TripAdvisor changed travel [The Guardian]

The $29 billion battle to own how America sleeps [Fast Company]

How Paytm clinched its Berkshire Hathaway investment [Economic Times]

'Peak car' and the end of an industry [Bloomberg]

Howard Marks Interview With Tim Ferriss on Mastering the Market Cycle

Tim Ferriss recently interviewed Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks on his popular podcast as part of Marks' press tour for his new book that's coming out: Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. Here are some notes/summary as well as the full audio below.


Howard Marks Interview on Tim Ferriss Podcast

- "You can't predict, you can prepare."  This quote is from one of Marks' memos from way back in the 1990s. He uses this to note that he didn't predict the housing crash, but he was prepared because of cautious preparation in advance.

-  His previous book The Most Important Thing outlines the concept that you have to know where we are in the cycle.  "And where you are in the cycle is the primary determinant of risk."  So his new book, Mastering the Market Cycle, focuses on that aspect because just knowing the position in the cycle is a huge advantage.

- The book focuses on looking at the future not as the past or something that's already happened that might repeat, but look at it as a range of possibilities, a probability distribution.

-  "Most of us have an inherent bias, (we're) essentially cautious or essentially aggressive."  He notes it's very important to assess your personal bias as that affects so much of your success in investing.

-  "One of the keys to successful investing is to either be unemotional or at a minimum, act like you are.  The great investors I know behave in an unemotional fashion."  The problem of course is teaching yourself to be unemotional is counter to human behavior.  So part of it is being born with that predisposition.

-  " 'I don't know.'  It's a great thing to say and not enough people say it."

-  Marks recommends people read Nassim Taleb's book, Fooled by Randomness

-  "There's nothing more dangerous in life than being sure you know something that you don't know."

-  Marks thinks the most useful chapter of his new book is the one that talks about one's attitude toward risk.  From the book: "If I could ask only one question about each investment I had under consideration, it would be, 'how much optimism is factored into the price?'"

-   "We make money from favorable surprises.  If the positive conviction is so high then by definition there can never be a favorable surprise."  Marks labeled this as a number one concept.

-  He says the greatest thing he was ever taught was about stages of a bull market and how people shift from not believing things will get better, to people accepting things are improving, to finally people believing the good times will go on forever.  Buying in the first phase gives cheapest prices because there's not much optimism in the price.  The second phase is when the favorable surprise happens.  Then you reach the phase where there's so much optimism in the price that it's unlikely to yield a profit.

-  Marks thinks we're in the 8th inning of the markets.  However, we don't know how many innings there are in the game.  In a normal game, the good times could be close to ending.  "I think this is a time for more caution than usual."

-  Marks likes playing backgammon since probability is the name of the game.

-  On cycles: the biggest mistake you can make is to ignore the repetitive nature of the cyclical pattern.

-  Marks likes reading Grant's Interest Rate Observer.  Another book that Marks has enjoyed: Factfulness, which he recommends as it takes qualitative viewpoints commonly held and debunks them with data.

- Marks believes bitcoin can't be valued.


Podcast Audio:  Here is the link to stream the podcast episode (mp3 format): click here



Be sure to also check out Marks' new book: Mastering the Market Cycle.

David Tepper Interview: Has Been Positioned Cautiously

Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper was recently interviewed by CNBC.  These comments came before the recent wave of Chinese tariffs were announced, so keep that in mind for context but we still thought they were worth highlighting.

On Monetary Policy:

Tepper says the stock market rally has been "better than I thought" since 2010.  He's amazed that there's still quantitative easing going on in the world.  He thinks we're "kind of late" in the cycle and the tide is turning from loose to tight (monetary policy).

The Appaloosa founder believes we're in a late inning game.  It could be the 8th inning, but sometimes the game goes to extra innings.

Also, on taxes, he feels the tax cuts might be borrowing economic growth from the future and there might be some payback for that some point down the line.



On China, Trade Wars & Tariffs:

He thinks the tariffs with China are going to make it tough on the market going forward (note again he made these comments before the latest big wave of tariffs went into effect).  

If there's no tariffs, "The market's fair valued if you don't have tariffs on China.  But if you do have tariffs on China, how high does the Dollar go and where will earnings be in that case?"

On his latest equity positioning, Tepper noted, "Ya know I probably don't have enough exposure.  I've taken down my exposure.  I'm still long, but in percentage terms of S&P exposure, maybe 25%."  He's been worried about the trade war situation.  He says he's been wrong overall on positioning and his stocks haven't done that well this quarter.

He doesn't know how much of the tariff situation is discounted in the market.  If a deal is reached, he doesn't think a 10% pop would happen, but something positive.

At the same time, he points out that "We may have to get used to that these tariffs just may be on.  Then, there will be an adjustment in the stock market."  It's clear he didn't think things were fully discounted at the market prices when he made these comments (September 13th)


Tepper's Equities Positioning:  

Tepper thinks he's been too cautious recently.  He has cash he can put to work.  He doesn't think the trade war issue is easy to solve.  But he can put on portfolio adjustments very quickly, he notes.

On specific stocks, Tepper notes Facebook (FB) looks somewhat cheap, especially for the growth rate.  They still hold a sizable position.  He's less concerned about the Cambridge Analytica data scandal and more-so looking at margins and the latest guidance there.  Stock still trades 16-17x, he points out.

On Micron Technology (MU), Tepper notes that his hedge fund is still very long.  "The demand side is going to be good for a long time.  Servers, cloud, and if you have smart cars."  He likes the company's management.  Also pointed out company buybacks and low valuation as shares have pulled back as investors react to concerns about memory chip demand slowing down.

 
Embedded below are the videos from a portion of David Tepper's CNBC interview:

Video 1



Video 2

Chris Mayer Interview: World According to Boyar Podcast

Boyar Value Group recently started doing a podcast entitled The World According to Boyar.  In it, they'll conversations with top investors, authors, and businesspeople.  Their first guest was Chris Mayer, author of How Do You Know as well as the investing book: 100 Baggers.  He is the Chief Investment Strategist of Bonner & Partners.  Here's some notes from the podcast as well as the full podcast audio embedded below:


Chris Mayer Interview on Boyar Podcast

- On 100 Baggers, it's basically taking the concept of a 10x return on a stock from Peter Lynch and adding a zero to it, to find the cream of the crop in terms of investment returns.  Mayer looked at all stocks that returned 100x from 1962 to 2014 to find common characteristics.  It returned 365 stocks and the best performing stock of all was Berkshire Hathaway.

- His biggest takeaway was that: return on invested capital is the most important factor.  If you compound at 25% a year for 25 years, that's a 100 bagger.  But that's also an extremely large feat.

-  The returns can often be back-end loaded so patience is one of the most important factors.  The psychology of watching prices head higher and higher and being tempted to sell often keeps people from holding on.  On the other side of the equation, the other problem is during those 100 baggers, you have to often survive multiple big drawdowns.  So psychology plays a big part in being able to withstand the swings.

- Coffee Can Portfolio:  Idea from Journal of Portfolio Management.  Investor just bought a small portfolio of stocks and just didn't touch them for 10 years and performed extremely well, much better than someone who bought the same stocks but actively sold positions.  Mayer named Howard Hughes (HHC) as a stock that could be an example today.  He bought it in 2011 and hasn't sold any shares since.  Another he likes is Fairfax Financial in Canada.

- How Do You Know: A Guide to Clear Thinking About Wall Street, Investing & Life is his new book that's not necessarily a traditional investing book but it's about how you know what you know.  You shouldn't try to know or explain every single little move a stock makes.

Embedded below is the full podcast of Boyar's interview with Chris Mayer:



We also recently posted up some complimentary equity research from Boyar if you missed it.  They've analyzed three stocks they feel have high upside and those reports are available for free: CHTR, BEN, STKL.

Howard Marks' New Memo: The Seven Worst Words in the World

Oaktree Capital Chairman Howard Marks has released his latest memo entitled "The Seven Worst Words in the World."  He starts the memo with a reminder that his new book comes out next week: Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.  His first book was excellent, so we're looking forward to this one too.

The words he's referring to in the title of his latest memo are: "Too much money chasing too few deals."  He uses this quote as a starting point for his thoughts on the market today.  Basically, he notes that the recovery from the recession with loose monetary policy has lasted ten years, and as such:

"While there certainly is no hard-and-fast rule that limits economic recoveries to ten years, it seems reasonable to assume based on history that the odds are against a ten-year-old recoverycontinuing much longer."

He feels the requirements have been met for a frothy market and has a cautious stance.  While he acknowledges things can go on for a bit longer, there are many conditions flashing warning signs.  Read on to ascertain why.

Embedded below is Howard Marks' latest memo, The Seven Worst Words in the World:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Be sure to also check out Howard Marks' brand new book that is coming out: Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.

Complimentary Equity Research From Boyar on CHTR, BEN, STKL

We wanted to give readers a head's up that Boyar Research is currently offering complimentary equity reports on three stocks.  They consistently put out high quality research and this time around they look at one popular hedge fund name, and two other names you might be less familiar with.

Boyar sees 60% upside in each of these companies. You can read the full write-ups for free here and we've excerpted some of the reports below with permission:


Charter Communications (CHTR)

"We view Charter as a best-in-class operator in the midst of multiple transitions that should unlock faster growth in the coming years. Charter ramped up investment in the TWC and Bright House assets it acquired in 2016, which should result in lower capital intensity, lower churn, and incremental cost savings/margin expansion going forward. We estimate that video will account for < 20% of Charter’s consolidated revenues, net of programming costs, by 2019. Meanwhile, Charter holds a near-monopoly on high-speed Internet over much of its footprint, and its commercial business continues to grow at or near double-digit rates.

We project that Charter can grow Adjusted EBITDA from $15.3 billion in 2017 to $20 billion by 2022. Assuming no expansion in Charter’s forward EV/EBITDA multiple, we estimate that Charter’s intrinsic value could exceed $500/share by year-end 2021. Charter already retired 12% of its shares in 2017 and could have the capacity for ~$28 billion (a third of the current market cap) in additional repurchases over the next 4 years. Finally, we believe that Charter and indeed cable companies generally are in a better position than wireless operators to support the development of 5G, and Charter remains a likely seller over the long term."

You can read their full analysis of CHTR here.


Franklin Resources (BEN)

"Following a decline of more than 25% in its share price from recent 52-week highs, BEN now trades at just 1.2% of its AUM (adjusted for its large cash hoard of ~$8.5 billion of net cash/investments, or ~50% of its current market cap), representing a significant discount to industry precedent transactions, which have occurred at 2.7% of AUM, on average, over the past ~10 years.

Since the beginning of FY 2007, BEN has returned $15.1 billion to shareholders via repurchases and dividends/special dividends, representing 87% of its current market cap and an astonishing 178% of its current enterprise value. Returns to shareholders will likely continue to be robust thanks to the Company’s newfound liquidity, the result of the new U.S. tax law, which offers lower federal tax rates and more favorable repatriation features. In the wake of the passage of the new tax law, Franklin has paid a special dividend, increased its regular dividend by 15% to $0.92 a share (yield: 2.9%), and accelerated the pace of its share buybacks.

Based on our assumption that the Company’s AUM will increase at just a 2.5% annual rate over the next 2 years, and valuing BEN at a discounted 2.5% of AUM, we derive an intrinsic value for the Company of $55 a share, representing 74% upside from current levels. Should the value versus growth pendulum or the active versus passive pendulum shift in Franklin’s favor, our intrinsic value estimate will likely prove extremely conservative.

We believe that Franklin represents an attractive target for a financial services firm given its strong brands, favorable long-term investment track record, and strong global distribution. Moreover, the Johnson family’s ~40% stake, coupled with BEN’s strong balance sheet, could help facilitate a management buyout." 

Click here for the rest of their complimentary BEN research.


SunOpta (STKL)

"SunOpta is in the early stages of a multi-year turnaround that is expected to drive growth, increase profitability, and unlock shareholder value. The Company’s turnaround is being overseen by a new chairman and CEO, both of whom have a proven track record of unlocking shareholder value in the consumer products industry. Notably, SunOpta’s chairman recently presided over the value creation at AdvancePierre Foods for Oaktree Capital (a 23-bagger for that firm).

The Company operates in the attractive market for organic and non-GMO ingredients and consumer products, which is growing at a high single-digit/low teens (%) rate. The increasingly important millennial generation is expected to be a key factor sustaining future industry growth, as millennial parents are the largest purchasers of organic products in the U.S.

The prospect for increased private label penetration bodes well for SunOpta, which has a low-cost advantage over its peers thanks to its integrated sourcing and manufacturing business model.

In late 2016, SunOpta received an $85 million investment from Oaktree Capital, which has continued to increase its stake in the Company, acquiring nearly $60 million in STKL shares via open market purchases during 2017 at an average price of $7.36 a share.

Applying a discounted multiple, relative to precedent transactions, to our 2020E EBITDA, we derive an intrinsic value of $12 a share, representing 65% upside from current levels. Management is heavily incentivized to unlock shareholder value, as the CEO holds ~750k of performance-based stock options/units that vest at various increments/stock prices between $11 and $18 a share."


Read the free report on STKL here.

Charlie Munger Interview: China's Weekly on Stocks

Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway and Li Lu of Himalaya Capital were recently interviewed a few months ago with Chinese media: Weekly on Stocks.  If you're unfamiliar, Lu is Munger's investing partner in China, where he has been investing for 15 years.  We've also posted Li Lu's interview up in a separate post.

Here are a few excerpts from the interview, with full videos below.


Charlie Munger Interview With Weekly on Stocks

Munger's opinion on Chinese securities:  "For investors, having more value means buying the best company in China or buying the best company in the United States. Comparing the two securities markets in China and the United States, I think the current price of the best companies in China is cheaper than the best companies in the United States. Therefore, Chinese people do not have to go abroad to find good investments, and there are many opportunities in their own countries. There are some very good companies in China and the prices are very reasonable."

When asked if he can name specifics:  "Hey, we can't tell you (laughs). In short, the Chinese market is increasingly open to foreign investors, with more and more participation from abroad, and the market is becoming healthier. These are all very good and will eventually drive up market prices."

On whether Berkshire's circle of competence is expanding with recent tech investments:  "At present, it is difficult for Berkshire to find good and low-priced investment products in the US market. We have hardly found anything suitable. All in all, you can also say that Apple is an electronic consumer goods company. Warren said that we may know more about consumer electronics than computer science, which is why Berkshire bought Apple stock.  Also emphasize another reason why we do this. If you want to be a good investor, you must keep learning. In the process of continuous learning, the situation is changing, the reality is changing, our investment will change, and we will not be self-sufficient."

Will they make more tech investments going forward?  "We don't know everything, we don't know how to understand, we only do what we know. The only company we have announced that has already invested is Apple. I think Warren said that we know Apple better than other companies. We can't know everything, so we invest in investing in assets that we can find to provide good value.  Take a look at our investment in airlines. In the past few decades, we have been joking with investment airlines. Warren has a lot of jokes in this area.  But suddenly, we bought stocks of each airline, because the airline's stock price has fallen sharply, it is so cheap, very potential. The conditions have changed and we are all willing to own airline stocks.  Like airlines, Warren and I don't like railroad stocks for decades. After a few decades, we began to buy shares in the railway, because the world has changed and the technology has changed. In the end, there are only four large railway companies. Finally, we bought the largest and most complete railway company among the four.  We changed because the world has changed. This is our investment logic. When the reality changes, shouldn't your thoughts change?"

Embedded below are the videos:

Charlie Munger Interview Videos

Video 1
Video 2
Video 3


Be sure to also check out the separate Li Lu interview we posted here.

The transcript of Munger's interview (in Chinese) is here.  H/T to @TaoValue for posting the videos.

Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Interview: China's Weekly on Stocks

Li Lu of Himalaya Capital was recently interviewed by Chinese media Weekly on Stocks.  If you're unfamiliar, Lu is Charlie Munger's investment partner in China and Munger has invested in Lu's fund for quite some time.  Charlie Munger was also interviewed, and we posted that up separately.


Li Lu Interview With Weekly on Stocks (China)

Li Lu on Munger/Buffett: "And so it is precisely their indifferent attitude towards personal interests that they have achieved such a long term performance success."  "Everyone is envious of Berkshire but no one is willing to learn their indifference to personal interests."

Lu on his fund:  He charges no management fee and has a 6% hurdle, modeled after the original Buffett partnerships.

Lu on investing:  "The investment itself is a prediction.  The prediction is indeed the result of a comprehensive combination of capabilities.  How to perform is the extension of conduct, so one's character, knowledge, and mentality really affect the long-term results.  There is no doubt about this."

"If you do this simply for the purpose of making money, it is almost impossible to achieve extraordinary long-term performance."

"Instead the key is that the most important thing for investment is to invest in anything you know and to avoid anything you don't know."

On the ongoing evolution of China's market:  "Three transformations: indirect finance to direct finance, debt dominance to equity dominance, and policy finance to market finance.  Then the whole financial market is gradually transformed from a disordered state like a gambling house to a relatively long term rational and sound decision."

On good investor characteristics:  "An excellent investor indeed should be honest to knowledge but not to the opinions of others.  Indeed this is actually somewhat against the humanity for us as social animals.  Indeed it is like this for us it is very important whether our evidence and logic is correct than whether others agree with you is not so important... An excellent investor has somewhat anti-human characteristics."

"The most important part in investment is objectivity and reasonability.  And the second is a deep understanding of intellectual honesty... That is to know what you really understand."


Embedded below are the videos:

Video 1


Video 2



For more on Li Lu, be sure to also check out a previous Columbia Business School interview with Li Lu.

H/T to @TaoValue for posting the videos.

Lone Pine Capital Increases Wynn Resorts Stake

Steve Mandel's hedge fund firm Lone Pine Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding its position in Wynn Resorts (WYNN).  Per the filing, Lone Pine now owns 5.4% of the company with over 5.95 million shares.

This is up from the 3.79 million shares they owned at the end of the second quarter of this year. The filing was made due to portfolio activity on September 10th.

Wynn Resorts owns, operates, and develops casino resorts, primarily in Las Vegas, Nevada and in Macau.

Capitalize For Kids Investors Conference: 85% Sold Out

The 2018 Capitalize for Kids Investors Conference is only two months away and is now 85% sold out.  The lineup features world-renowned investing minds including Bob Prince, Co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates, David Rubenstein of The Carlyle Group, Jeff Ubben of ValueAct Capital, Ed Garden of Trian Fund Management, Jeffrey Smith of Starboard Value, and many more.

In total, more than $1.5 million will be raised to build capacity in the youth mental health sector.  The event takes place on October 24th & 25th in Toronto.

Learn more and register:  https://www.capitalizeforkids.org/conference/

Embedded below is a one-pager for the event

Warren Buffett Interview: Bought More Apple, Berkshire Buys Back Stock

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway was just interviewed by Becky Quick on CNBC.  Here's a summary of his thoughts:

He notes he bought a little more Apple (AAPL) recently.  He doesn't care about one quarter or one year's worth of iPhones sold.  He'd obviously like to see each product cycle do well, but he notes he's mainly viewing the company as an indispensible utility.  He argues that the value you get on a daily basis for only $1000 (price of an iPhone) it's a no-brainer.  People are so attached to their devices and use them for so many different things.  He doesn't own an iPhone but has an iPad and uses it frequently.  Would love to see the stock pullback as he could buy more or the company could buyback more stock at cheaper levels.

Berkshire hasn't been buying more airline stocks mainly because he doesn't want to go over the 10% ownership threshold in them, and he has to trim them if the companies are buying back stock.

Buffett said that consumer packaged goods are a good business from a return on tangible assets perspective.  While he acknowledged the businesses have seen increased competition and changing consumer tastes, they're still a good place to be.  He likes brands but is aware it's a tougher environment than it used to be, especially with the stocks much higher these days.  When asked about Campbells (CPB), he said Berkshire wouldn't be interested but he couldn't really speak for Kraft Heinz (KHC).  He said it's very hard to offer a premium for a packaged goods company.

Berkshire bought a little bit of its stock recently, Buffett notes.  They removed the previous restriction of a multiple of book value.  They're now looking at it from an intrinsic business value perspective.

"The economy since the fall of 2009 has gotten progressively better, but it started from a very low base.  We've had 9 full years of improvement in business. Business is good, across the board."

Noted that stocks are better than bonds and real estate.

He's seeing inflation in input costs on raw materials.  It's hard to say if that's due to the tariff situation or other factors, but he noted it increased certainly over the last year and particularly after the trade war situation.  He specifically noted steel, building materials, as well as paint cans as areas where they're seeing increased costs.

On Fed chairman Jay Powell, Buffett likes him and thinks he's doing a good job and will do what's best for the economy.

13F Filing Summary: New Issue Just Released

Want to find out what stocks top hedge funds have been buying, selling, and shorting?  Our 88-page quarterly newsletter summarizes the latest 13F filings of 25 top hedge funds.

The brand new Q2 issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom is now available.  Subscribers please login at www.hedgefundwisdom.com to download it.


Inside The New Issue


- Investment Thesis Summaries of Lennar (LEN) and NXP Semiconductor (NXPI).  Quickly get up to speed on why managers were buying these stocks in Q2

- New Consensus Buy / Sell Lists: See the most popular stocks among top hedge funds

- Reveals Latest Portfolios of 25 Top Managers: David Tepper, Steve Mandel, Seth Klarman, Chase Coleman, Lee Cooperman and 20 other top investors (full list here)


Subscribe Below To Read It Now

You'll get immediate access to the brand new issue as well as the full archive of past issues.

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Marc Andreessen's Recommended Reading List 2018

If you're looking for some good summer reads, here you go.  Marc Andreessen, founder of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz recently tweeted a list of books he's read and recommends. 

It's a diverse list and isn't filled with finance books like so many other recommended reading lists we post, so this will certainly broaden your horizons.  Here's the list with his tweeted comments about each book.


Marc Andreessen's Recommended Reading List 2018


Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It?  How Can We Know? by Phil Tetlock:  "Is the future knowable, and by whom?  All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't.  What to pay attention to and what to ignore."


Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman:  "Captivating dive into human decision making, marred by inclusion of several/many? psychology studies that fail to replicate.  Will stand as a cautionary tale?"


Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke:  "Compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital.  Best articulation of 'resulting', drawing bad conclusions from confusing process and outcome.  Recommend for people operating in the real world."


The Spider Network by David Enrich: " 'Billions'-esque saga of global financial market manipulation, at mind-boggling scale and hiding in plain sight, by a small cabal of bankers in London."


A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy by William B. Irvine: "Best (?) walk through the ancient/current philosophy of Stoicism.  You can't control other people but you can control yourself, so do that."


The Courage to Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi & Fumitake Koga:  "Smash hit in Japan, and easy to see why.  Adlerian psychology meets Stoic philosophy in Socratic dialogue.  Compelling from front to back.   Highly recommended."


All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain's Political Class by Tim Shipman:  "Inside story of how Britain decided to exit the EU.  Economic self-destruction or national liberation?  Repercussions to play out for decades."


When the Wolves Bite: Two Billionaires, One Company, and an Epic Wall Street Battle by Scott Wapner.  " 'Wall Street'-esque battle between Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn over unlikely target Herbalife.  Sip a delicious Herbal Aloe Shake while reading."


But What If We're Wrong?: Thinking About the Present As If It Were the Past by Chuck Klosterman:  "Wide-ranging meditation on how to think about the reality that we're probably wrong about most things we believe.  Hard to read and not emerge humbled."


Chasing Hillary:  Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling by Amy Chozick:  "On the bus/in the plane with the Hillary campaign.  Revealing in many dimensions at once, and highly entertaining.  Best book on the 2016 campaign so far?"


The Strange Death of Europe by Douglas Murray: "One perspective on the politics of immigration in Europe, playing out in real time, e.g. Merkel almost getting deposed days ago.  Confusing on multiple levels from US perspective."


A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies and Leadership by James Comey:  "Certainly the story is well known, but given author's propensity to post photos of himself wearing running shoes in Iowa, potentially relevant again starting next year?"


Conspiracy:  Peter Thiel, Hulk Hogan, Gawker, and the Anatomy of Intrigue by Ryan Holiday: "Startlingly deep cultural history of conspiracies, examined through the lens of the brutally effective Gawker takedown, with full access to the main players."


Skin in the Game by Nicholas Taleb:  "Skin in the game as conflict of interest, or as attaching one's livelihood to one's speech?  Who to listen to, and why.  Ideal counterpart to Phil Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment."


12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos by Jordan Peterson: "A bracing disassembly and reconstruction of a theory of individual progress in the modern world.  Fascinating compare and contrast with The Courage To Be Disliked."


Slugfest: Inside the Epic, 50-year Battle between Marvel and DC by Reed Tucker: "Spellbinding creative and business history of the incredibly imaginative comic book industry in the decades before it ate Hollywood."


Hacks: The Inside Story of the Break-ins and Breakdowns That Put Donald Trump in the White House by Donna Brazile: "Visceral, raw, you-are-there recounting of living through the hack attacks and resulting meltdown of the DNC in 2016."


Days of Rage: America's Radical Underground, the FBI, and the Forgotten Age of Revolutionary Violence by Bryan Burrough: "How 1960s racial politics descended into 1970s terrorist bombings, thanks to privileged college students breaking very bad."


Civilian Warriors: The Inside Story of Blackwater by Erik Prince: "The founding and growth of military contractor Blackwater as told by its founder and CEO; newly relevant due to the Mueller investigation."


The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance by Steve Kotler: "Startling walk through a series of domains where peak human performance is rising at remarkable rates due to 'flow state'.  Thought provoking and then some."


Devil's Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency by Joshua Green: "Best (?) book so far on the Republican side of the 2016 race, and a deep dive into the intellectual origins of Bannonism and to some extent Trumpism."


Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign by Jonathan Allen & Amie Parnes: "Best (?) book so far on the Democratic side of the 2016 race, most provocatively on the impact of the press coverage of the email hacks on the last stages of the race."


Living with a SEAL: 31 Days Training with the Toughest Man on the Planet by Jesse Itzler: "What's it like to train with a Navy SEAL in winter in New York for a whole month?  Featuring the truly remarkable American hero David Goggins."


The Myth of the Rational Voter by Bryan Caplan: "The median American is a moderate national socialist - statist to the core on both economic and social policy.  Given public opinion, the policies of First World democracies are surprisingly libertarian."


A Very Expensive Poison: The Assassination of Alexander Litvinenko by Luke Harding: "The astonishing story of the Litvinenko and Perepilichnyy assassinations in the UK; reads like a Lee Child thriller; plenty topical now."


Lone Survivor: The Eyewitness Account of Operation Redwing and the Lost Heroes of SEAL Team 10 by Marcus Luttrell: "The film was fine but the book is unreal; incredibly vivid story of superlative American heroes."


How to Live: A Life of Montaigne in One Question and Twenty Attempts at an Answer by Sarah Blakewell: " 'How to get along with people, how to deal with violence, how to adjust to losing someone you love - All versions of a bigger question: How do you live?' "



If you're looking for even more books, be sure to also check out Ray Dalio's recommended reading list, as well as Mohnish Pabrai's recommended reading list, or any of the others we've linked on the right sidebar of the MarketFolly homepage.

Howard Marks' New Memo: Investing Without People

Oaktree Capital's Chairman Howard Marks has penned his latest memo.  It is entitled Investing Without People and talks about the evolution of the markets with the increasing presence of index/passive investing, quant strategies, and machine learning/AI.

Marks writes,

"When people invest more in certain stocks than others, the prices of those stocks rise in relative terms. And when everyone decides to refrain from performing the functions of analysis, price discovery and capital allocation, the appropriateness of market prices can go out the window (as a result of passive investing, just as it does in a mindless boom or bust). The bottom line is that the wisdom of investing passively depends, ironically, on some people investing actively. When active investing is dismissed totally and all active efforts cease, passive investing will become imprudent and opportunities for superior returns from active investing will reemerge. At least that’s the way I see it."

He then concedes that computers can do many things better than investors. But at the same time he notes that, "Computers can do an unmatched job dealing with the things that can be counted: things that are quantitative and objective. But many other things – qualitative, subjective things – count for a great deal, and I doubt computers can do what the very best investors do."

Marks' Upcoming New Book

Also, it was recently revealed that Marks has a new book coming out in a few months entitled Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting The Odds On Your Side.

Marks' Latest Memo

Embedded below is Howard Marks' new memo, Investing Without People



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Julian Robertson Interview: FANG Stocks Not Frothy At All

Tiger Management founder Julian Robertson was recently interviewed by CNBC.  Here's a summary and the full video below:

- When asked about Paul Tudor Jones' recent comments about stocks heading higher into year-end, Robertson said that, "I think there's a very good chance of that happening (in the next year) and I'm positioned accordingly."

-  He thinks it's possible that interest rates go up so high so fast that the Fed would have to ease up a bit.  But doesn't think rates will go 'wildly' up

- Says the President has done a reasonably good job, but could do with a dose of humility

- Tax cuts have helped corporate earnings but also the earnings of the middle class tremendously

- Feels a slowdown is at least 6 months and 'hopefully' 2 years away

- Tech stocks: he doesn't think FANG stocks are frothy at all, especially relative to the rest of the market. This is one area where he feels he differs in opinion from a lot of market participants.  Adds Microsoft (MSFT) to that bunch as these stocks have growth rates similar to their multiples

-  He likes the management at many of these companies, Facebook etc

-  Air Canada at 3x next year's cashflow is not an expensive stock and is 'beautifully run'.  Also likes Ryanair in Europe.  Doesn't really have any airline favorites in the US right now

-  Loves the banks, thinks they're very reasonably priced in relation to earnings.  Huge cashflow yields next year and thereafter.  Thinks they're in terrific shape, likes JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC)

-  Would tell grandchildren to own FB, BAC, JPM, probably Citigroup (C), which is 'reasonably priced'

Embedded below is the video of Julian Robertson's CNBC interview:

.

What We're Reading ~ 6/13/18

Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments [Michael Batnick]

Assessing the debt picture [Fat Pitch]

Mary Meeker's 2018 internet trends report [KPCB]

Netflix: inside the binge factory [Vulture]

Proprietary product distribution is better than sliced bread [25iq]

The cult of Peloton: reinventing the fitness industry [Adweek]

How millennials became the world's most powerful consumers [FT]

What's driving the billion-dollar natural beauty movement? [Fast Company]

Gucci strikes gold in China, thanks to youth who spend it all [Bloomberg]

How the game Fortnite captured teens' hearts and minds [New Yorker]

Spotify vs Pandora: which is winning the ad-supported game? [Billboard]

A worrying turn ahead for auto loans [WSJ]

NASCAR tries to keep pace in today's ridesharing world [Washington Post]

On watches: an investment on your wrist [NYTimes]

A framework for analyzing factor returns [OSAM]

Paul Tudor Jones Interview: Sees Rate Jumps & Stock Market Higher Later This Year

Paul Tudor Jones of macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp recently sat down with CNBC for an interview.


Tudor said that, "Three things that are driving the world today... and they all start here in the United States. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, and of course a trade irritant, rather than a trade problem."  He says you have to monitor for signs of a further trade war escalating.

If Tudor was running the Fed, he said interest rates would be 150 basis points higher than they are now. 

Single best investment that's working for him right now: "Literally as light as I've been... I can't remember the last time I've been this light."  He doesn't have a lot of macro positions on right now, as the reward/risk is diminished at this particularly point in time.

"I like to have significant leveraged positions when I think there's an imminent price move directly ahead."

He thinks the third and fourth quarters are going to be phenomenal trading periods after a summer lull.  He thinks rates will move significantly higher and the stock market also has "the ability to go a lot higher at the end of the year."

Comparing this time period to past ones, he mentioned 1987 ( but "not necessarily saying we're going to have a crash").  He also listed 1999, or 1989 in Japan.  He thinks this will end with a lot higher prices and forcing the Fed to shut it off.  "It's an old story, we'll probably play it again."

"Rates have got to go up enough to either shut the economy down, and overwhelm from real money selling like we had in '07 those buybacks, or to make it economically less compelling for companies to issue debt and buyback stock, this is real simple."

On North Korea:  Unless it escalates into some military issue, it was a non-event and non-issue.  He thinks it will fade away.  The summit was anti-climactic.


Embedded below is the full half-hour video of Paul Tudor Jones' interview with CNBC:

PointState Capital Boosts Stake in The Medicines Company

Zach Schreiber's hedge fund firm PointState Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding its position in The Medicines Co (MDCO).  Per the filing, PointState now owns 5.3% of the company with over 3.87 million shares.

This is up from the 3.7 million shares they owned at the end of the first quarter.  The filing was made due to portfolio activity on June 1st.

Per Yahoo Finance, The Medicines Company is "a biopharmaceutical company, provides medicines to treat acute and intensive care patients. The company markets Angiomax, an intravenous direct thrombin inhibitor used as an anticoagulant in combination with aspirin in patients with unstable angina undergoing percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, and for patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in the United States. It primarily focuses on developing Inclisiran, a lipid-lowering drug to reduce LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk-equivalents. The company has collaboration agreements with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; SciClone Pharmaceuticals; and Symbio Pharmaceuticals Limited. The Medicines Company was founded in 1996 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey."

Baupost Group Sells PBF Energy, FIles 13G on Colony NorthStar

Seth Klarman's hedge fund firm Baupost Group has filed a couple of 13G's with the SEC regarding shares of both PBF Energy (PBF) and Colony NorthStar (CLNS).


Baupost Sells PBF Energy

Per a 13G filing, Baupost Group no longer owns shares of PBF Energy (PBF).  The filing notes they sold the stake on May 31st.  They had previously owned a $268 million stake in the company as of the end of the first quarter.

Per Yahoo Finance, PBF Energy is "together with its subsidiaries, engages in the refining and supply of petroleum products. The company operates through two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United State, as well as in other regions of the United States and Canada. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey."


Baupost Files 13G on Colony NorthStar

Per a separate 13G, Baupost also now shows a 10.02% ownership stake in Colony NorthStar (CLNS) with over 49.68 million shares.  The number of shares they own is unchanged from the end of the first quarter, and so the percentage ownership of the company is likely what triggered the filing.

Per Yahoo Finance, Colony NorthStar, Inc. (NYSE:CLNS) "is a leading global real estate and investment management firm. The Company resulted from the January 2017 merger between Colony Capital, Inc., NorthStar Asset Management Group Inc. and NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. The Company has significant property holdings in the healthcare, industrial and hospitality sectors, other equity and debt investments and an embedded institutional and retail investment management business. The Company currently has assets under management of $43 billion and manages capital on behalf of its stockholders, as well as institutional and retail investors in private funds, non-traded and traded real estate investment trusts and registered investment companies. In addition, the Company owns NorthStar Securities, LLC, a captive broker-dealer platform which raises capital in the retail market. The firm maintains principal offices in Los Angeles and New York, with more than 500 employees in offices located across 18 cities in ten countries. The Company will elect to be taxed as a REIT for U.S. federal income tax purposes. For additional information regarding the Company and its management and business, please refer to www.clns.com."