Whitney Tilson recently launched a new investment conference focused on short selling called the Kase Learning Short Selling Conference. They've released some videos of pitches from the presentations and we've aggregated them here along with notes from each talk if you just want a quick summary.
Click each link below to go to the presentation.
Kase Learning Short Selling Conference Presentations 2018
- Sahm Adrangi (Kerrisdale Capital): On ad fraud and Quinstreet (QNST)
- Mark Spiegel (Stanphyl Capital): Short Tesla (TSLA)
- Gabriel Grego (Quintessential Capital): Short Folli Follie
- Jillian McIntyre (221B Capital): Short Intelsat (I)
- Berna Barshay (Viola Capital): Short Ralph Lauren (RL)
- Enrique Abeyta: Short Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD)
- Chris Brown (Aristides Capital): Short Energous (WATT)
- Asher Jacobs & Jade Hu (Columbia MBAs): Short Stericycle (SRCL)
Monday, June 4, 2018
Kase Learning Short Selling Conference Presentations 2018
Berna Barshay Short Ralph Lauren Presentation: Kase Learning Conference
We're posting up a series of presentations from the recent Kase Learning Short Selling Conference. Next up is Berna Barshay of Viola Capital Management who pitched a short of Ralph Lauren (RL).
Berna Barshay's Presentation: Short Ralph Lauren (RL)
- Consumer specialist. Industry ripe with disruption.
- 80% of household purchase decisions made by women, 80% of investment choices made by men
- Ralph Lauren in the middle of attempted turnaround: Co has lost 19% of sales last three years. Why? Historically positioned as an upscale brand, they over distributed (discounting, margin pressure). Longtime COO departure led to disruption. Trying to now pullback on promotions and try to reach a new, younger customer. Stock up 70% in last 9 months, she's more skeptical on turnaround attempt and speed at which it would happen.
- In the age of Instagram, brands can't control their story as much. RL is too focused on North America. Department stores in secular decline. Trying to replicate Coach merely by reducing points of distribution
- Ratio of outlets to full price stores is out of whack and is a challenge to elevating the brand back up. Co is also omnipresent in the 'off price' channel. TJMaxx and Marshall has a lot of inventory and continued to grow. The difference between the $89 polo shirt at their flagship store wasn't that much different from the $35 polo shirt at TJMaxx. RL has devalued their signature item and devalued their brand in the process. This will be a headwind in the brand elevation efforts.
- Co wants to update the product and modernize the brand: does this alienate the core customer they have? Tough to straddle. It's a preppy, country club look that's been around since the 70s. Millennials and younger have much different street style
- She talked to 200 Millennials about favorite clothing brands and received a wide array of responses: RL hardly on the radar, lots of newer brands, niche brands, etc. Barriers to entry in clothing have come way down. RL did much better with men than women in survey.
- Near-term return to topline growth is nearly impossible due to off-price channel and department stores in secular decline. Trading at 18x like a luxury goods stock but needs to show tangible results
- Brand turnaround takes years and thinks that while expectations are low, still thinks estimates are too high. Upcoming investor day could be a catalyst. Thinks earnings will be flattish for next 2 years. N. America growth will be down 4%, 11% earnings miss. Thinks it should trade around 13x, for 30% downside though it's not a valuation short
Embedded below is the video of Berna Barshay's presentation:
Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the Kase Learning Short Selling Conference.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
What We're Reading ~ 6/15/16
Calculating the return on incremental capital investments [Base Hit Investing]
The history of the online travel industry [Skift]
A conversation with Alphabet's Eric Schmidt [Charlie Rose]
Armstrong Flooring: a spinoff with big upside [StockSpinoffInvesting]
Time Warner's Jeff Bewkes fights the industry's urge to merge [Variety]
Why housing is about to eat the US economy [CSen]
Student loans as economic depressant [Across the Curve]
The college debt crisis is worse than you think [Boston Globe]
Thoughts from a recent trip to China [Going Long]
The future of banking is in China [WSJ]
China's credit card clearing market now open for competition [SCMP]
China is close to having its own Silicon Valley [Business Insider]
Are we in a mattress store bubble? [Freakonomics]
The U.S. is richer than ever [Calafia Beach Pundit]
Welcome to Larry Page's secret flying car factories [Bloomberg]
What's the best management advice you've ever received [Alan Murray]
What's one thing you've learned at Harvard Business School [Medium]
Profile of Nike's CEO Mark Parker [SurfaceMag]
Struggling Ralph Lauren tries to fashion a comeback [WSJ]
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Lone Pine Capital's Current Investment Themes
Today we're covering the current investment themes from Steve Mandel's hedge fund Lone Pine Capital.
*Update: excerpt removed per request by representatives of Lone Pine
In more recent portfolio activity, we've detailed how Lone Pine nearly doubled its SolarWinds (SWI) stake and has been buying the dip in VanceInfo Technologies (VIT).
Friday, October 15, 2010
Lone Pine Capital Increases Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) Stake
Stephen Mandel's hedge fund firm Lone Pine Capital just filed a 13G with the SEC regarding shares of Polo Ralph Lauren (RL). Due to portfolio activity on October 4th, the filing discloses Lone Pine's 5.0% stake in RL with 3,278,958 shares.
This means Mandel's hedge fund has increased its position size by almost 56%. They previously held 2,106,191 shares back on June 30th of this year. Mandel's background is in the consumer sector so it's no surprise to see their stake in Polo Ralph Lauren.
Lone Pine has been busy in the market as of late, starting a brand new position in TransDigm Group (TDG) recently as well. You can view the rest of Lone Pine's portfolio here in our newsletter.
Taken from Google Finance, Polo Ralph Lauren is "engaged in the design, marketing and distribution of products, including men’s, women’s and children’s apparel, accessories, fragrances and home furnishings."
