Value Invest New York Conference: Exclusive Discount

Value Invest New York

December 4, 2018, Metropolitan Club of

New York City

The conference speaker line-up includes Joel Greenblatt, Howard Marks, Matthew McLennan and many others - see the full speaker line-up and presentation titles below.

As a partner offer, the organizers have offered MarketFolly readers a $200 discount on a ticket to attend if booked before October 31, plus also a free eBook from Harriman House worth $20 (no conference ticket purchase required).

Take advantage of the exclusive discount before it expires in 2 weeks!  To save, click here to register and use discount code: Marketfolly-VINY18


Click here to see the full speaker line-up


- Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital: "Mastering the Market Cycle": Fireside Chat and Audience Q&A Hosted by Scott Wapner of CNBC

- Joel Greenblatt - Gotham Asset Management: Presentation title TBC

- Álvaro Guzmán de Lázaro & Fernando Bernad - azValor: "Buying Deeply Undervalued Real Assets"

- David Iben - Kopernik Global Investors: "The Value of Being Approximately Right In a Market that Appears to be Increasingly Precisely Wrong"

- Ben Preston - Orbis Investments: "Vale: Blue Sky Mine"

- Matthew McLennan - First Eagle Investment Management: "The Value of Scarcity and Resilience"

- Richard Chilton - Chilton Investment Company: "A Private Equity Approach to Investing in High-Quality Stocks"

- Bernard Horn - Polaris Capital: "A Global Snapshot of Value Opportunities"

- Andrew Wellington - Lyrical Asset Management: "Value Hidden in Plain Sight"

- Ronald Chan - Chartwell Capital: "The Value Handover"

- Nigel Waller & Andrew Goodwin - Oldfield Partners: "Value Investing in an Age of Disruption"

- Rajiv Jain - GQG Partners: Title TBC

- Jonathan Boyar - Boyar Value Group: Title TBC

- Robert Hagstrom - EquityCompass Strategies: Title TBC

- David Shapiro - Willis Towers Watson (Moderator)

 

If you have any questions about Value Invest New York please direct them to the organizers at newyork@valueinvest.com

What We're Reading ~ 10/16/18

Why family businesses outperform [Credit Suisse]

Exclusive interview with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos [Forbes]

Op-ed from AQR's Cliff Asness: Buyback derangement syndrome [WSJ]

The untold story of Stripe, the secretive $20 billion payments startup [Wired]

Profile of the owner of the In-N-Out burger chain [Forbes]

Bob Iger's bets are paying off big time for Disney [TIME]

Pitch on Henry Schein (HSCI) [Spruce Point Management]

A pitch on Tempur Sealy [Barrons]

A capacity to suffer and setting the right expectations [Scuttlebutt Investor]

Can Larry Culp fix General Electric? [WSJ]

LendingTree is the secret success story of FinTech [TechCrunch]

Why facts don't change our minds [James Clear]

Atomic Habits: An easy and proven way to build good habits [James Clear]

A day in the life of a Waymo self-driving taxi [The Verge]

The gambler who cracked the horse-racing code [Bloomberg]

Carl Icahn Buys Dell Technologies Tracking Stock, Opposes Merger, Sends Letter

Activist investor Carl Icahn today unveiled a new 8.3% ownership stake in Dell Technologies tracking stock (DVMT) with over 16.5 million shares.  He opposes the DVMT merger and released a very detailed lettering outlining his thesis and thoughts (all emphasis his):


Icahn's Letter to DVMT Shareholders

"Fellow DVMT Stockholders:

Over the decades I’ve spent much of my time searching for undervalued companies.  We are very proud of our record.  In fact, an investment in Icahn Enterprises depositary units made at the beginning of 2000 (when Icahn Enterprises began to fully embrace the activist strategy) has increased by approximately 1,514%, or an annualized return of 16%, through October 11, 2018 (assuming reinvestment of dividends).  We have also made hundreds of billions of dollars for stockholders in companies in which we have been activist investors.  However, we freely admit that many of the companies we have invested in were identified to us by stockholders who sought our assistance against mediocre management who were attempting to profit at stockholder expense.  As you know, even the worst management and boards in this country are extremely difficult to dislodge.

A few months ago, several large holders of Dell Technologies Inc.’s tracking stock (“DVMT” or the “Tracker”) contacted me to express their concerns regarding, and their opposition to, Michael Dell’s and Silver Lake’s machinations and activities related to the Tracker, as well as stressing that the Tracker was, and is, deeply undervalued.  (Five years ago, I vehemently fought Michael Dell who many stockholders believed was severely underpaying for the company in a going-private transaction).  After researching the current situation, I quickly realized that while we have unearthed many undervalued opportunities in the past, very few companies compare to the current opportunity and the massive undervaluation of DVMT — which exists in plain sight for all to see.

We Don't Say This Lightly: 

Over The Past Few Months We Have Acquired Beneficial Ownership Of Over 16.5 Million, or 8.3%, DVMT Shares.

We Will Vote AGAINST.

And Will File A Proxy Statement To Solicit Your Vote AGAINST, Dell's Proposed DVMT Merger!

The Dell Tracker currently sells for approximately $92 per share but is worth on a pure mathematical basis approximately $144 per share[1].  In my opinion, this massive distortion exists because (i) as a result of the 2013 going-private transaction, we believe the market does not trust Michael Dell or Silver Lake; (ii) the Tracker has basically zero governance rights and is trapped within a capital structure that has some of the worst corporate governance in America (at Dell, the Certificate of Incorporation even requires that the CEO has to agree to replace the CEO!), however, investor fear of this poor governance is overdone and we believe strong activism combined with litigation, if necessary, can mitigate the governance risks; and (iii) for the better part of the past year, Dell and Silver Lake worked to destroy the value of the Tracker by (1) raising the possibility of a Dell IPO, (2) floating the idea of a merger with VMware and (3) threatening a forced conversion of the Tracker into Dell common stock, among other tactics. These scare tactics are reminiscent of the tactics Machiavelli advised the Borgia rulers to use centuries ago.

The Facts

Several years ago, I believe Dell and Silver Lake realized that Dell Technologies was simply a highly-leveraged hardware company facing great secular challenges and would never enjoy the growth and success of Apple and Microsoft. Therefore, they levered up dramatically to purchase EMC Corporation (“EMC”), a better positioned hybrid hardware and software company, whose crown jewel was its 82% ownership interest in VMware, Inc. (“VMware” or “VMW”).  But, to purchase EMC, Dell needed $10 billion more than its bankers could possibly arrange, and they also needed to convince EMC stockholders that Dell’s offer was worth accepting.  They accomplished this by engineering the DVMT Tracker that they said would allow EMC stockholders to continue to participate in VMware’s upside.

Because a tracking stock is unusual and rarely included as merger consideration, Dell and its bankers had to convince EMC stockholders that the Tracker would efficiently “track” the economic value of VMware shares.  To that end, one of Dell’s bankers at the time delivered a fairness opinion that assumed the Tracker would trade at a range of +/- 5% to VMware shares; while another banker assumed the Tracker would not trade at more than a 0-10% discount to VMware shares.[2]  Dell sold EMC stockholders the Tracker assuming, at most, no more than a 10% discount, yet today, Dell and some of those same bankers are now soliciting your vote to agree to exchange your DVMT shares at a 36% discount![3]

It seems clear that Dell has long-planned to repurchase the Tracker at bargain basement prices.  For two years, Dell management have publicly boasted about Dell’s “…opportunistic opportunities in the market to take advantage of the discount between the two securities”[4] and have repurchased over 23 million DVMT shares at substantial discounts.  This plan significantly benefits Michael Dell and Silver Lake, but at a huge cost to the DVMT stockholders.  Why hasn’t the Dell Board been exercising its fiduciary duties owed to the DVMT stockholders, as opposed to just the controlling stockholders?  Make no mistake, if the current “opportunistic” deal succeeds, 100% of the discount, approximately $11 billion, will be an economic windfall mostly attributable to Michael Dell and his Silver Lake partners.  It is clear to me that Dell and Silver Lake have followed Machiavelli’s advice to the letter:  It is better to be respected than loved, but better still to be feared than respected.

Creating the Fear

In January 2018, Dell commenced its fear campaign by telling stockholders that Dell was evaluating potential business combinations between Dell and VMware, Inc.  DVMT stockholders and the market generally feared that this meant a possible reverse-merger with VMware which would result in a significant multiple contraction for the combined companies which would mean a much lower combined company stock price for the former VMware stockholders.  This obviously would also result in a lower value for the DVMT stock.  For good reason, these disclosures sowed fear and uncertainty that resulted in a precipitous fall in price for both VMW shares and DVMT shares.  In a two-week period both stocks dropped over 25%.  It is very hard to believe that Michael Dell and Silver Lake did not fully anticipate this drop and we believe this was a carefully calculated (and successful) attempt to frighten VMW and DVMT stockholders.  It appears to us that VMW management and the VMW independent board members wanted no part of a merger with Dell.  Instead, they agreed to dividend $9 billion to Dell to obtain some relief from, and at least postpone, a merger with Dell.  Once the threat of a merger was effectively off the table, VMW and DVMT shares recovered a good part of their lost value and the discount narrowed modestly, but it continues to persist.

But, Michael Dell’s and Silver Lake’s ultimate objective was, and still is, to purchase the Tracker at a large discount and they would not be deterred.  They therefore successfully struck a deal with Dell’s independent directors to exchange DVMT shares for cash and Dell stock, at a ridiculously low valuation.  Instead of paying the mathematical value of $144 per share for the Tracker, they are currently offering to pay what we estimate is only $94 per share.[5]  Although I know and respect one of the Dell independent directors, by agreeing to this deal, I can only conclude the independent directors must have been misinformed by advisors working for Dell and Silver Lake or by Michael Dell and Silver Lake themselves.  Otherwise, it is unquestionable, in my opinion, that the independent directors breached their fiduciary duties to the DVMT stockholders.  How else can one explain an agreement that so obviously transfers $11 billion in value to the controlling stockholders at the expense of the minority stockholders?  The one thing these independent directors did get right, however, was to condition the deal on DVMT stockholder approval.  I believe the Dell independent directors must take their fiduciary duties to the DVMT stockholders seriously.  Any future transactions proposed by the controlling stockholders must always be assumed to be at the expense of the DVMT stockholders and the independent directors must always demand robust protections for the DVMT stockholders. The Board’s fiduciary duty to all stockholders demands nothing less, especially after this fiasco!

Dell now appears to be realizing that DVMT stockholders are uniformly and stubbornly against the proposed DVMT merger and is now moving into the next phase of its fear-mongering campaign.  By using the scare tactic of disclosing that they have met with investment bankers to explore a potential IPO of Dell’s Class C common stock, Dell is effectively telling its public stockholders that if we, the DVMT stockholders, do not approve their proposed DVMT merger, they will invoke a draconian provision in their Charter and force us to convert our DVMT shares into Dell stock following a Dell IPO.  Fortunately, in my opinion, their threat to “cram down” a forced IPO conversion is another empty one, if we stand together.  

An Empty and Ridiculous IPO Threat 

We believe that a Dell IPO would face significant challenges and trade very poorly given the possibility of the issuance of a tsunami of stock in connection with a forced conversion.  I believe Dell’s IPO valuation would be severely penalized with: 1) a larger than average IPO discount for its abominable corporate governance, 2) a conglomerate discount for the myriad of partially owned assets and complex structure and 3) a large and incalculable discount for the up to $20 billion of backflowing shares that could hit the market following a forced conversion of DVMT stock.  It would also be one of the most closely watched and scrutinized IPOs in history – the spotlight’s glare would be blinding!  In short, we are not intimidated by Dell’s threat of a forced IPO conversion, and ultimately, we ask ourselves: “Who would ever buy Dell stock knowing that a tsunami of stock may hit the market?” And, given these chaotic dynamics and uncertainties, as well my and other DVMT stockholders strong opposition to a forced IPO conversion, can you imagine the required disclosures or the roadshow?  Could you even find an investment bank willing to risk its reputation (not to mention the potential liability) with a Dell IPO under such circumstances?  

Even in the almost impossible event that Dell overcomes these massive execution challenges of the IPO “cram down,” we believe applicable law will suffocate Dell’s ability to achieve the draconian outcome they so desire.  The Delaware courts are clear that controlling stockholder transactions must be reviewed under the stringent entire fairness standard, not business judgment, unless certain procedural safeguards are satisfied.  If Dell invokes the forced IPO conversion, we believe the Board must treat such a transaction as a conflicted controlling stockholder transaction and obtain protections for the DVMT stockholders, otherwise the Board’s decisions will be reviewed under the entire fairness standard.  Particularly because a forced IPO conversion would result in irreparable harm to DVMT stockholders, we also believe that any transaction that fails to include minority stockholder safeguards will be exposed to an injunction and/or substantial damages.

Importantly, against the backdrop of DVMT stockholders rejecting the proposed DVMT merger transaction, it will be very difficult not to conclude that the forced IPO conversion was pursued in retaliation against DVMT stockholders. Given the fact that in one recent discussion, a very reputable stockholder told us that Goldman Sachs, one of Dell’s advisors, has been telling stockholders that (and I paraphrase) “…the IPO could be for a small number of shares and who knows how that will trade…”, Dell’s and Silver Lake’s current vote solicitation activities already appear to be tainted by coercion.  In my view, this is obviously another threat to take advantage of DVMT stockholders who do not understand that an IPO is nearly impossible!  Dell, Silver Lake and Goldman Sachs should all absolutely understand that Delaware jurisprudence has developed to protect minority stockholders from coercive controlling stockholders, and I strongly believe, as do my lawyers, that the Delaware courts will protect DVMT stockholders from Dell’s and Silver Lake’s coercive actions. Even if we fail to obtain an injunction, we believe we would have valid claims for substantial damages, which Dell would have to defend under entire fairness, for many years, which is not something either Dell or the Board will want to do.  Suffice it to say, we believe it is obvious that the threat of a forced IPO conversion is empty, no matter what they say.

Continuing the "Status Quo" - Another Empty Threat

Another threat Dell has made is that they will do nothing and will continue with the “status quo”.  But this is ridiculous!  Time is Dell’s enemy and our friend!  As time goes on, we expect Dell’s very cyclical business to be basically stagnant or to decline, while VMware’s business should continue to grow and become more profitable.  This dynamic will largely put our 50% economic ownership in VMware out of their reach.  We therefore believe that Dell purchasing the Tracker is a “must have” for Dell.  Today Dell, ex-VMware, is a mundane highly-levered hardware company that will only face greater disruption and competition.  The combination of high leverage and the cyclicality of Dell’s business means that it is possible that Dell’s cash flow may be severely impaired by any downturn in its business, making it very important for them to get control of VMware’s more stable recurring cash flow.  Dell has over $46 billion in gross debt, and its recent debt paydown has substantially relied on cash generation from asset sales and working capital, instead of operating income.  To continue paying down debt, we believe that Dell has a more pressing need for VMware’s cash flow than management would have you believe.

It is our strong opinion that capturing the discount is only the first step in Dell’s grand expropriation of value.  As astute technology investors, we believe that Michael Dell and Silver Lake perceive that VMware is right at the beginning of a multi-year inflection point.  As its fast-growing network and cloud solutions gain scale, we believe VMware is likely to experience the business nirvana of both accelerating growth and expanding margins.  We believe this could result in over $12 per share of free-cash flow generation in a few years, and a stock price of potentially over $250 per share.[6]  Clearly Michael Dell and Silver Lake take us for fools if they think that we would exchange this future value potential for only $94 per share.

THE Next Steps

We believe Dell’s next step will be to modestly increase the deal price in an attempt to receive voting commitments from those willing to sell at a discount, just not as large as the current 36% discount.  We strongly believe that DVMT stockholders should not consider accepting any discount, but if they do, in no event should that discount be greater than the 0 to 10% discount that was assumed when the DVMT Tracker was first issued.  Even then, note, I merely say “consider.”

Despite the numerous arguments I have made to explain why DVMT stockholders should not accept Dell’s proposed deal, or for that matter, even a new deal unless it contains a very, very substantial increase, I understand that some DVMT stockholders may want to exit their investment and accept an improved offer.  For that reason, and in preparation for the possible announcement of an improved offer, I am considering several options.  I believe that if Dell does raise the offer, it will be important to provide liquidity to the DVMT stockholders that want to sell, while also protecting the DVMT stockholders that do not want to sell from being forced out in a merger.  In my opinion the best way to balance these competing interests would be to offer a competing partial bid that provides partial liquidity without forcing a merger.  As such, I intend to continue evaluating this idea and determine whether other interested parties, including financing sources, may want to participate in, or finance, a transaction of this nature.

VOTE AGAINST THE PROPOSED DVMT MERGER!

In conclusion, I firmly believe Dell and Silver Lake are trying to capture $11 billion of value that rightly belongs to us, the DVMT stockholders.  As such, I intend to do everything in my power to STOP this proposed DVMT merger. In my opinion, it is better to have peace than war, but be assured, I still enjoy a good fight for the right reasons, and in the current situation, I do not see peace arriving quickly!  Stay tuned!

Sincerely,

Carl C. Icahn"



[1] Based on DVMT share price of $91.74 and VMware stock price of $141.49, as of October 11, 2018.  Assumes Class V Common Stock interest in 61.1% of the 331 million VMW shares attributable to the Class V Group, per Dell Technologies Inc.’s Form S-4/A, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, on October 4, 2018.

[2] As disclosed in the EMC Definitive Proxy Statement, dated June 6, 2016.

[3] Based on the value of 199 million outstanding DVMT shares, at $91.74 per share, compared to the value of 61.1% of Class V Group’s interest in 331 million VMware shares, at $141.29 per share.

[4] Dell Chief Financial Officer comments made during Dell’s earnings call on March 30, 2017.

[5] Based on a 5.0x multiple of FY2019E “Core Dell” EBITDA of $7 billion and market prices as of October 11, 2018 for VMware, Pivotal and SecureWorks. Assumes DVMT shares exchanged for $9 billion of cash and 1.3665 subject to proration.

[6] Cash flow projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch report, dated July 16, 2018.  FCF valuation multiple based on comparable company analysis, including MSFT, RHT and CTXS.

Cat Rock Capital Increases SharpSpring Position

Alexander Captain's hedge fund firm Cat Rock Capital has filed an amended 13G with the SEC regarding its stake in SharpSpring (SHSP).  Per the filing, Cat Rock now owns 15.01% of the company with over 1.22 million shares.

This is up from the 936,935 shares they reported as of July 16th in their previous 13G filing.  The newly amended 13G was made due to activity on September 24th.   Prior to founding Cat Rock, Captain worked at Tiger Global.

Per Yahoo Finance, SharpSpring is "operates as a cloud-based marketing technology company worldwide. The company offers SharpSpring, a marketing automation solution for small and mid-size businesses. It markets and sells its products and services through sales teams and third party resellers. The company was formerly known as SMTP, Inc. and changed its name to SharpSpring, Inc. in December 2015. SharpSpring, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Gainesville, Florida."

Tiger Global Buys More Sunrun

Chase Coleman's hedge fund firm Tiger Global has filed a Form 4 with the SEC regarding its position in Sunrun (RUN).  Per the filing, Tiger Global now owns over 15.23 million shares.

They purchased RUN shares on October 9th, 10th, and 11th at weighted average prices of $11.1267, $11.9614, and $11.9757.  In total, they bought 231,357 shares.

As we've detailed previously, Tiger Global has increased its stake over the course of the year.

Per Yahoo Finance, Sunrun "engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar leads. The company markets and sells its products through direct channels, partner channels, mass media, digital media, canvassing, referral, retail, and field marketing. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California."

Sohn San Francisco Investment Conference: Final Speakers & Registration

The Sohn San Francisco Investment Conference is only a few weeks away on October 29th.  It will feature top investment managers sharing investment ideas in order to support the Excellence in Investing for Children's Causes Foundation and its beneficiaries.

The conference supports organizations improving educational opportunities for under-served youth and a portion of the proceeds also benefits The Sohn Conference Foundation and their research on pediatric cancer.

If you're on the west coast, this is the investment conference to attend.  You can get more information about the conference here: https://excellencesf.org/


Sohn San Francisco Speakers List

- Mick McGuire, Marcato Capital Management

- Alex Gleser, TPG Public Equity Partners

- Glen Kacher, Light Street Capital

- Andrew Parmentier, Highland Capital

- Shashin Shah, Think Investments

- Dan Morehead, Pantera Capital

- Kevin Oram, Praesidium Investment Management

- Jeff Osher, No Street Capital

- Jeff Shen, Ph.D., BlackRock

- Gil Simon, SoMa Equity Partners

- Mayor London N. Breed, Mayor of San Francisco


You can hear all the investment pitches from these managers by registering for the conference here.


Next Wave Sohn Speakers

- Vineer Bhansali, Ph.D., Long Tail Alpha

- Marcelo Desio, Lucha Capital Management

- Daniel Kozlowski, Plaisance Capital

- Franklin Parlamis, Aequim Alternative Investments


Event Details

When: October 29th, 2018

Where: Hyatt Regency, San Francisco


Schedule:  

11:30am to 12:30pm - Networking and Buffet Lunch

12:30pm to 2:00pm - Next Wave Sohn: Emerging Managers

2:30pm to 6pm - Sohn Conference Main Event

6:00 pm to 7:30pm - Cocktail Reception


The conference is only a few weeks away, so act quickly before it's too late.  Click here to register for the event.

Hedge Fund Links ~ 10/12/18

Hedge fund Highfields Capital to shut down [Reuters]

Another shutdown: Tourbillon Capital [Bloomberg]

Recent thoughts from Stan Druckenmiller [Business Insider]

Profile of Elliott Management's Paul Singer [New Yorker]

Profile of Jim Chanos [Institutional Investor]

Profile of Joseph Edelman: The 41% man [Institutional Investor]

Study finds funds in the business of breaking up deals see payday [CNBC]

At hedge funds, where are the women? [WSJ]

The incredible shrinking hedge fund [Bloomberg]

When not to invest in a hedge fund [Institutional Investor]

A fund manager's fancy car might be a red flag [Barrons]

Viking Global Files 13D on Urovant Sciences

Andreas Halvorsen's hedge fund firm Viking Global has filed a 13D with the SEC regarding shares of Urovant Sciences (UROV).  Per the filing, Viking now shows a 75.6% stake in the company with over 22.7 million shares, though the 13D notes that "The Reporting Persons do not directly own any Common Shares." 

The company recently completed its initial public offering (IPO).  Viking has previously invested in Roivant Sciences in 2016, a holding company that has created numerous subsidiaries, including newly public Urovant, which could explain Viking's SEC filing.  Other Roivant subsidiaries include Axovant Sciences, Myovant Sciences, and Enzyvant Sciences, to name a few.

Viking also invested in Roivant again in 2017 with an undisclosed amount of funding.  SoftBank's Vision Fund is also an investor in Roivant, but not the subsidiaries, at least that was the case as of mid-2017.  Roivant was founded by Vivek Ramaswamy.

Third Point's Presentation on Campbells (CPB): Refresh the Recipe

Dan Loeb's hedge fund firm Third Point has an activist position in Campbells (CPB).  They recently released a presentation called #RefreshTheRecipe where they are pushing for change at the company.

Third Point highlights that Campbells has underperformed both peers and the S&P under various timelines (19% shareholder return vs 306% for S&P over the last 20 years).  Third Point seeks to replace the board to enact change and originally pushed for the company to sell itself or merge with another packaged foods company.

Dan Loeb's firm is looking to turnaround the soup business, stabilize the fresh food business and stop margin declines with disciplined cost management, and make the overall product offerings more relevant to modern consumers via ingredients/flavors and new designs/packaging.

For the snacks business, Third Point sees opportunity to innovate with new flavors, ingredients and packaging to drive market share, execute on deal synergies from the Snyder's-Lance deal, and wants them to explore divestitures of non-core brands like Pop Secret and Pepperidge Farm frozen cakes.

If the whole business were to be sold, they comp relevant transactions leading to a 14-15x EBITDA multiple, or between $52 and $58 per Campbells share.  CPB currently trades around $37.


Third Point's Campbell's Presentation: Refresh The Recipe

Embedded below is the slideshow:



For other recent hedge fund commentary, we posted up Bill Ackman's presentation on Starbucks as well as Greenlight Capital's Q3 letter.

Trian Partners Discloses PPG Industries Stake

Nelson Peltz's Trian Partners has filed an amended 13F with the SEC.  In it, they reveal a new position in PPG Industries (PPG).  As of the end of the second quarter, they owned 2.59 million shares. 

They had previously disclosed this information privately to the SEC and requested confidential treatment. 

It's unclear what their position size is currently, and we won't see it until they update their 13F as of the end of the third quarter.  That filing will come in mid-to-late November. 

The paints and coatings company recently reported earnings and guidance, and shares sold off sharply on the news.

JANA Partners Trims HD Supply Position

Barry Rosenstein's hedge fund firm JANA Partners has filed a Form 4 with the SEC regarding its stake in HD Supply Holdings (HDS).  Per the filing, JANA sold 621,235 shares on October 5th at a weighted average price of $42.37.  After this sale, they still own over 5.39 million shares.

Bill Ackman Long Starbucks: Pershing Square Presentation

At the Grant's Interest Rate Observer Conference, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square unveiled a new long position: Starbucks (SBUX).  The presentation is entitled 'Doppio' and Pershing now owns over 15 million shares with a cost basis of $51 and they've used forward contracts.  It's around a $900 million stake.

Pershing notes SBUX is trading at 22x, a discount to the average of 26x and they feel premium coffee is a secularly growth category.  If same store sales and valuation can return to average levels, SBUX shares can double in three years.

Pershing's thesis is that this is a rare opportunity to own one of the world's best franchises at a discount.  They're encouraged by actions of the new leadership team, as they've streamlined the portfolio (sold Tazo, closed Teavana stores, sold the consumer packaged goods business to Nestle).  They're also initiating cost savings and a significant share buyback plan (~$19bn three year target).

Pershing Square: Long Starbucks Presentation

Embedded below is the .pdf of the presentation:



You can download a copy here.

For other recent hedge fund commentary, we also posted up David Einhorn & Greenlight Capital's Q3 letter.

Greenlight Capital Q3 Letter: Sold Apple, Still Short Tesla

David Einhorn's hedge fund Greenlight Capital has had a rough 2018.  They're now down 25.7% for the year.  During the quarter, they exited the last of their longstanding Apple (AAPL) position at $228 per share. 

They feel their AAPL thesis that was once differentiated has now become consensus and the valuation of 17x forward earnings is "much less enticing and we are somewhat worried about Chinese retaliation against America's trade policies."

Greenlight also continues to be bearish on Tesla and noted many similarities to Lehman Brothers before its collapse.  They also highlighted CEO Elon Musk's erratic behavior.  There's numerous paragraphs about TSLA in the letter below.


Greenlight New Longs: Altice USA and BT Group

In other notable portfolio activity, they initiated two new longs: Altice USA (ATUS) and BT Group. 

ATUS they acquired at $18.38 and view it as a discounted play on cable peers in the US.  They feel the company has better cashflow conversion and more investment opportunities than rivals. 

BT Group they purchased at £2.19 and feel that shares were cheap at 4.7x EV/EBITDA and an 8% dividend yield. 

They also covered their 11 year short in Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) and covered another short: TransDigm Group (TDG). 

Also, they sold out of their Micron (MU) position and exited their Mylan (MYL) stake as well.


Greenlight Capital's Q3 Letter

Embedded below is Greenlight Capital's Q3 Letter:



For more recent hedge fund commentary, check out Bill Ackman's new long Starbucks SBUX presentaiton.

Baupost Group Files 13D on Viasat, Joins Board

Seth Klarman's investment firm Baupost Group has filed a 13D with the SEC regarding its stake in Viasat (VSAT).  Per the filing, Baupost owns 23.06% of the company with over 13.73 million shares.  This ownership stake amount is unchanged from the end of the second quarter.

In the filing, Baupost notes they recently were invited to join the company's board in a non-voting capacity.

In a press release issued by the company, they noted: 

“As a decade-long investor in Viasat, we remain excited about the Company’s growth potential in both its defense and commercial businesses,” said Greg Ciongoli, partner, The Baupost Group. “We appreciate this opportunity to contribute to boardroom discussions.”

“Baupost has a successful long-term philosophy of value investing,” said Mark Dankberg, chairman and CEO, Viasat. “Inviting Baupost to participate as a Board observer provides us with an opportunity to capitalize on their strategic insight, as well as their valuable financial and investment expertise.”

Steve Einhorn - Omega Advisors Interview on Boyar Podcast

Steve Einhorn of Omega Advisors was recently interviewed on The World According to Boyar Podcast.  Einhorn has been Lee Cooperman's longtime partner at the firm, which recently converted into a family office.


Steve Einhorn Interview on Boyar Podcast

-  Omega runs long/short, primarily in the US with average exposure in developed economies.  Would prefer 15% lumpy return than a 8% non-lumpy return.

- They also spend a lot of time on macro thinking and strategy to combine with their equity research.  They assess a number of factors: economic activity, earnings growth, monetary/fiscal policies, valuation, supply and demand, etc.

-  This helps them determine what exposure they want in the portfolio.  If they're constructive overall, they're willing to take more stock specific risk.  They're bottom-up stock pickers, but if a macro outlook leans certain ways, they can look to take more exposure to a certain sector.  They'll also sell options premium in certain instances.

- On position sizing: they first look at liquidity as they don't want to be so large in a name that they can't get out without disturbing the market.  The second is the risk/reward associated with a given name.  A large long for them is 3-5% of assets and large short would be 1-2%.

-  They'll exit a stock if it meets their stock price target and upside is diminished, or if they were simply wrong on their assessment of fundamentals, or if there's another stock in the sector that's more attractive.

-  Currently he likes the tech sector (software) due to rapid growth in revenue and cashflow.  They see moats around many of these names allowing them to keep pricing flexibility.  They think global growth will be less than it has been historically, and in this environment they want to be invested in growth names, as tech names are often independent of the business cycle.  Not to mention, the multiples they're paying is not excessive in their view.

- Another sector they like is industrials as a synchronized global economic expansion will benefit some of these companies.  They like the position in the cycle.  They also like financials, feels they're cheap relative to tangible book and can see high dividend growth.  In the energy sector, oil prices have ramped up, but some of those stocks haven't reflected that.

- They're not interested in utilities or telecom names, anything interest rate sensitive.  Consumer staples is another area that "looks expensive to them on a multiple basis relative to underlying growth prospects."


Steve Einhorn's Bear Market Checklist

Five items are almost always present at the end of a US bull market and the start of a bear market.  The five are:

1)  Problematic inflation:  if wage inflation is around 3.5% it's a problem (it's currently well below that).  Also watch core consumer prices (you'd need to see consumer inflation in excess of 2.25%)

2)  A hostile Federal Reserve:  raising rates well above the neutral rate of 2.5-3% causes a hostile Fed (currently below that).  Thinks they'll gradually lift rates.

3)  Prospect of recession: "virtually nothing we look at shows the economy in the US is prone to a recession anytime soon."

4)  Investor sentiment:  climbing a wall of worry.  Currently doesn't think it's excessive or speculative.

5)  Valuation: When it becomes extended relative to interest rates and inflation.  Current multiples aren't extended in relation to interest rates.  Modestly above long-term average.


- Sees forward equity returns of 7-9%.  "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die because they are murdered by the Federal Reserve.  Our Federal Reserve is not in a murderous mentality given tame inflation and moderate economic growth."


For other recent podcasts, we've also previously highlighted Boyar's interview with Chris Mayer, the author of 100 Baggers.

Embedded below is the podcast audio of Boyar's interview with Steve Einhorn:



Email readers:  Click here to listen

If you missed it, we also posted up complimentary equity research from Boyar on Charter Communications (CHTR), Franklin Resources (BEN), and SunOpta (STKL). 

What We're Reading ~ 10/3/2018

The decision matrix: how to prioritize what matters [Farnam Street]

Sustainable sources of competitive advantage [Collaborative Fund]

Deep dive on wireless future: 5G [Axios]

How Shopify is the platform powering the direct-to-consumer revolution [Digiday]

Why Google Fiber is high-speed internet's most successful failure [HBR]

Pulling back the curtain on how SoftBank's massive Vision Fund works [TechCrunch]

A pitch on Yelp [Barrons]

Inside the world's fastest growing food delivery service [Eater]

Food delivery apps are impacting your favorite restaurants [Democrat & Chronicle]

How seltzer/sparkling water is upending coffee and beer [WSJ]

App-only banks rise in Europe and aim at traditional banks [NYTimes]

For some platforms, network effects are no match for local know-how [HBR]

David Rubenstein interviews Amazon's Jeff Bezos [YouTube]

How TripAdvisor changed travel [The Guardian]

The $29 billion battle to own how America sleeps [Fast Company]

How Paytm clinched its Berkshire Hathaway investment [Economic Times]

'Peak car' and the end of an industry [Bloomberg]

Howard Marks Interview With Tim Ferriss on Mastering the Market Cycle

Tim Ferriss recently interviewed Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks on his popular podcast as part of Marks' press tour for his new book that's coming out: Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. Here are some notes/summary as well as the full audio below.


Howard Marks Interview on Tim Ferriss Podcast

- "You can't predict, you can prepare."  This quote is from one of Marks' memos from way back in the 1990s. He uses this to note that he didn't predict the housing crash, but he was prepared because of cautious preparation in advance.

-  His previous book The Most Important Thing outlines the concept that you have to know where we are in the cycle.  "And where you are in the cycle is the primary determinant of risk."  So his new book, Mastering the Market Cycle, focuses on that aspect because just knowing the position in the cycle is a huge advantage.

- The book focuses on looking at the future not as the past or something that's already happened that might repeat, but look at it as a range of possibilities, a probability distribution.

-  "Most of us have an inherent bias, (we're) essentially cautious or essentially aggressive."  He notes it's very important to assess your personal bias as that affects so much of your success in investing.

-  "One of the keys to successful investing is to either be unemotional or at a minimum, act like you are.  The great investors I know behave in an unemotional fashion."  The problem of course is teaching yourself to be unemotional is counter to human behavior.  So part of it is being born with that predisposition.

-  " 'I don't know.'  It's a great thing to say and not enough people say it."

-  Marks recommends people read Nassim Taleb's book, Fooled by Randomness

-  "There's nothing more dangerous in life than being sure you know something that you don't know."

-  Marks thinks the most useful chapter of his new book is the one that talks about one's attitude toward risk.  From the book: "If I could ask only one question about each investment I had under consideration, it would be, 'how much optimism is factored into the price?'"

-   "We make money from favorable surprises.  If the positive conviction is so high then by definition there can never be a favorable surprise."  Marks labeled this as a number one concept.

-  He says the greatest thing he was ever taught was about stages of a bull market and how people shift from not believing things will get better, to people accepting things are improving, to finally people believing the good times will go on forever.  Buying in the first phase gives cheapest prices because there's not much optimism in the price.  The second phase is when the favorable surprise happens.  Then you reach the phase where there's so much optimism in the price that it's unlikely to yield a profit.

-  Marks thinks we're in the 8th inning of the markets.  However, we don't know how many innings there are in the game.  In a normal game, the good times could be close to ending.  "I think this is a time for more caution than usual."

-  Marks likes playing backgammon since probability is the name of the game.

-  On cycles: the biggest mistake you can make is to ignore the repetitive nature of the cyclical pattern.

-  Marks likes reading Grant's Interest Rate Observer.  Another book that Marks has enjoyed: Factfulness, which he recommends as it takes qualitative viewpoints commonly held and debunks them with data.

- Marks believes bitcoin can't be valued.


Podcast Audio:  Here is the link to stream the podcast episode (mp3 format): click here



Be sure to also check out Marks' new book: Mastering the Market Cycle.

David Tepper Interview: Has Been Positioned Cautiously

Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper was recently interviewed by CNBC.  These comments came before the recent wave of Chinese tariffs were announced, so keep that in mind for context but we still thought they were worth highlighting.

On Monetary Policy:

Tepper says the stock market rally has been "better than I thought" since 2010.  He's amazed that there's still quantitative easing going on in the world.  He thinks we're "kind of late" in the cycle and the tide is turning from loose to tight (monetary policy).

The Appaloosa founder believes we're in a late inning game.  It could be the 8th inning, but sometimes the game goes to extra innings.

Also, on taxes, he feels the tax cuts might be borrowing economic growth from the future and there might be some payback for that some point down the line.



On China, Trade Wars & Tariffs:

He thinks the tariffs with China are going to make it tough on the market going forward (note again he made these comments before the latest big wave of tariffs went into effect).  

If there's no tariffs, "The market's fair valued if you don't have tariffs on China.  But if you do have tariffs on China, how high does the Dollar go and where will earnings be in that case?"

On his latest equity positioning, Tepper noted, "Ya know I probably don't have enough exposure.  I've taken down my exposure.  I'm still long, but in percentage terms of S&P exposure, maybe 25%."  He's been worried about the trade war situation.  He says he's been wrong overall on positioning and his stocks haven't done that well this quarter.

He doesn't know how much of the tariff situation is discounted in the market.  If a deal is reached, he doesn't think a 10% pop would happen, but something positive.

At the same time, he points out that "We may have to get used to that these tariffs just may be on.  Then, there will be an adjustment in the stock market."  It's clear he didn't think things were fully discounted at the market prices when he made these comments (September 13th)


Tepper's Equities Positioning:  

Tepper thinks he's been too cautious recently.  He has cash he can put to work.  He doesn't think the trade war issue is easy to solve.  But he can put on portfolio adjustments very quickly, he notes.

On specific stocks, Tepper notes Facebook (FB) looks somewhat cheap, especially for the growth rate.  They still hold a sizable position.  He's less concerned about the Cambridge Analytica data scandal and more-so looking at margins and the latest guidance there.  Stock still trades 16-17x, he points out.

On Micron Technology (MU), Tepper notes that his hedge fund is still very long.  "The demand side is going to be good for a long time.  Servers, cloud, and if you have smart cars."  He likes the company's management.  Also pointed out company buybacks and low valuation as shares have pulled back as investors react to concerns about memory chip demand slowing down.

 
Embedded below are the videos from a portion of David Tepper's CNBC interview:

Video 1



Video 2

Chris Mayer Interview: World According to Boyar Podcast

Boyar Value Group recently started doing a podcast entitled The World According to Boyar.  In it, they'll conversations with top investors, authors, and businesspeople.  Their first guest was Chris Mayer, author of How Do You Know as well as the investing book: 100 Baggers.  He is the Chief Investment Strategist of Bonner & Partners.  Here's some notes from the podcast as well as the full podcast audio embedded below:


Chris Mayer Interview on Boyar Podcast

- On 100 Baggers, it's basically taking the concept of a 10x return on a stock from Peter Lynch and adding a zero to it, to find the cream of the crop in terms of investment returns.  Mayer looked at all stocks that returned 100x from 1962 to 2014 to find common characteristics.  It returned 365 stocks and the best performing stock of all was Berkshire Hathaway.

- His biggest takeaway was that: return on invested capital is the most important factor.  If you compound at 25% a year for 25 years, that's a 100 bagger.  But that's also an extremely large feat.

-  The returns can often be back-end loaded so patience is one of the most important factors.  The psychology of watching prices head higher and higher and being tempted to sell often keeps people from holding on.  On the other side of the equation, the other problem is during those 100 baggers, you have to often survive multiple big drawdowns.  So psychology plays a big part in being able to withstand the swings.

- Coffee Can Portfolio:  Idea from Journal of Portfolio Management.  Investor just bought a small portfolio of stocks and just didn't touch them for 10 years and performed extremely well, much better than someone who bought the same stocks but actively sold positions.  Mayer named Howard Hughes (HHC) as a stock that could be an example today.  He bought it in 2011 and hasn't sold any shares since.  Another he likes is Fairfax Financial in Canada.

- How Do You Know: A Guide to Clear Thinking About Wall Street, Investing & Life is his new book that's not necessarily a traditional investing book but it's about how you know what you know.  You shouldn't try to know or explain every single little move a stock makes.

Embedded below is the full podcast of Boyar's interview with Chris Mayer:



We also recently posted up some complimentary equity research from Boyar if you missed it.  They've analyzed three stocks they feel have high upside and those reports are available for free: CHTR, BEN, STKL.

Howard Marks' New Memo: The Seven Worst Words in the World

Oaktree Capital Chairman Howard Marks has released his latest memo entitled "The Seven Worst Words in the World."  He starts the memo with a reminder that his new book comes out next week: Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.  His first book was excellent, so we're looking forward to this one too.

The words he's referring to in the title of his latest memo are: "Too much money chasing too few deals."  He uses this quote as a starting point for his thoughts on the market today.  Basically, he notes that the recovery from the recession with loose monetary policy has lasted ten years, and as such:

"While there certainly is no hard-and-fast rule that limits economic recoveries to ten years, it seems reasonable to assume based on history that the odds are against a ten-year-old recoverycontinuing much longer."

He feels the requirements have been met for a frothy market and has a cautious stance.  While he acknowledges things can go on for a bit longer, there are many conditions flashing warning signs.  Read on to ascertain why.

Embedded below is Howard Marks' latest memo, The Seven Worst Words in the World:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Be sure to also check out Howard Marks' brand new book that is coming out: Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.

Complimentary Equity Research From Boyar on CHTR, BEN, STKL

We wanted to give readers a head's up that Boyar Research is currently offering complimentary equity reports on three stocks.  They consistently put out high quality research and this time around they look at one popular hedge fund name, and two other names you might be less familiar with.

Boyar sees 60% upside in each of these companies. You can read the full write-ups for free here and we've excerpted some of the reports below with permission:


Charter Communications (CHTR)

"We view Charter as a best-in-class operator in the midst of multiple transitions that should unlock faster growth in the coming years. Charter ramped up investment in the TWC and Bright House assets it acquired in 2016, which should result in lower capital intensity, lower churn, and incremental cost savings/margin expansion going forward. We estimate that video will account for < 20% of Charter’s consolidated revenues, net of programming costs, by 2019. Meanwhile, Charter holds a near-monopoly on high-speed Internet over much of its footprint, and its commercial business continues to grow at or near double-digit rates.

We project that Charter can grow Adjusted EBITDA from $15.3 billion in 2017 to $20 billion by 2022. Assuming no expansion in Charter’s forward EV/EBITDA multiple, we estimate that Charter’s intrinsic value could exceed $500/share by year-end 2021. Charter already retired 12% of its shares in 2017 and could have the capacity for ~$28 billion (a third of the current market cap) in additional repurchases over the next 4 years. Finally, we believe that Charter and indeed cable companies generally are in a better position than wireless operators to support the development of 5G, and Charter remains a likely seller over the long term."

You can read their full analysis of CHTR here.


Franklin Resources (BEN)

"Following a decline of more than 25% in its share price from recent 52-week highs, BEN now trades at just 1.2% of its AUM (adjusted for its large cash hoard of ~$8.5 billion of net cash/investments, or ~50% of its current market cap), representing a significant discount to industry precedent transactions, which have occurred at 2.7% of AUM, on average, over the past ~10 years.

Since the beginning of FY 2007, BEN has returned $15.1 billion to shareholders via repurchases and dividends/special dividends, representing 87% of its current market cap and an astonishing 178% of its current enterprise value. Returns to shareholders will likely continue to be robust thanks to the Company’s newfound liquidity, the result of the new U.S. tax law, which offers lower federal tax rates and more favorable repatriation features. In the wake of the passage of the new tax law, Franklin has paid a special dividend, increased its regular dividend by 15% to $0.92 a share (yield: 2.9%), and accelerated the pace of its share buybacks.

Based on our assumption that the Company’s AUM will increase at just a 2.5% annual rate over the next 2 years, and valuing BEN at a discounted 2.5% of AUM, we derive an intrinsic value for the Company of $55 a share, representing 74% upside from current levels. Should the value versus growth pendulum or the active versus passive pendulum shift in Franklin’s favor, our intrinsic value estimate will likely prove extremely conservative.

We believe that Franklin represents an attractive target for a financial services firm given its strong brands, favorable long-term investment track record, and strong global distribution. Moreover, the Johnson family’s ~40% stake, coupled with BEN’s strong balance sheet, could help facilitate a management buyout." 

Click here for the rest of their complimentary BEN research.


SunOpta (STKL)

"SunOpta is in the early stages of a multi-year turnaround that is expected to drive growth, increase profitability, and unlock shareholder value. The Company’s turnaround is being overseen by a new chairman and CEO, both of whom have a proven track record of unlocking shareholder value in the consumer products industry. Notably, SunOpta’s chairman recently presided over the value creation at AdvancePierre Foods for Oaktree Capital (a 23-bagger for that firm).

The Company operates in the attractive market for organic and non-GMO ingredients and consumer products, which is growing at a high single-digit/low teens (%) rate. The increasingly important millennial generation is expected to be a key factor sustaining future industry growth, as millennial parents are the largest purchasers of organic products in the U.S.

The prospect for increased private label penetration bodes well for SunOpta, which has a low-cost advantage over its peers thanks to its integrated sourcing and manufacturing business model.

In late 2016, SunOpta received an $85 million investment from Oaktree Capital, which has continued to increase its stake in the Company, acquiring nearly $60 million in STKL shares via open market purchases during 2017 at an average price of $7.36 a share.

Applying a discounted multiple, relative to precedent transactions, to our 2020E EBITDA, we derive an intrinsic value of $12 a share, representing 65% upside from current levels. Management is heavily incentivized to unlock shareholder value, as the CEO holds ~750k of performance-based stock options/units that vest at various increments/stock prices between $11 and $18 a share."


Read the free report on STKL here.

Charlie Munger Interview: China's Weekly on Stocks

Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway and Li Lu of Himalaya Capital were recently interviewed a few months ago with Chinese media: Weekly on Stocks.  If you're unfamiliar, Lu is Munger's investing partner in China, where he has been investing for 15 years.  We've also posted Li Lu's interview up in a separate post.

Here are a few excerpts from the interview, with full videos below.


Charlie Munger Interview With Weekly on Stocks

Munger's opinion on Chinese securities:  "For investors, having more value means buying the best company in China or buying the best company in the United States. Comparing the two securities markets in China and the United States, I think the current price of the best companies in China is cheaper than the best companies in the United States. Therefore, Chinese people do not have to go abroad to find good investments, and there are many opportunities in their own countries. There are some very good companies in China and the prices are very reasonable."

When asked if he can name specifics:  "Hey, we can't tell you (laughs). In short, the Chinese market is increasingly open to foreign investors, with more and more participation from abroad, and the market is becoming healthier. These are all very good and will eventually drive up market prices."

On whether Berkshire's circle of competence is expanding with recent tech investments:  "At present, it is difficult for Berkshire to find good and low-priced investment products in the US market. We have hardly found anything suitable. All in all, you can also say that Apple is an electronic consumer goods company. Warren said that we may know more about consumer electronics than computer science, which is why Berkshire bought Apple stock.  Also emphasize another reason why we do this. If you want to be a good investor, you must keep learning. In the process of continuous learning, the situation is changing, the reality is changing, our investment will change, and we will not be self-sufficient."

Will they make more tech investments going forward?  "We don't know everything, we don't know how to understand, we only do what we know. The only company we have announced that has already invested is Apple. I think Warren said that we know Apple better than other companies. We can't know everything, so we invest in investing in assets that we can find to provide good value.  Take a look at our investment in airlines. In the past few decades, we have been joking with investment airlines. Warren has a lot of jokes in this area.  But suddenly, we bought stocks of each airline, because the airline's stock price has fallen sharply, it is so cheap, very potential. The conditions have changed and we are all willing to own airline stocks.  Like airlines, Warren and I don't like railroad stocks for decades. After a few decades, we began to buy shares in the railway, because the world has changed and the technology has changed. In the end, there are only four large railway companies. Finally, we bought the largest and most complete railway company among the four.  We changed because the world has changed. This is our investment logic. When the reality changes, shouldn't your thoughts change?"

Embedded below are the videos:

Charlie Munger Interview Videos

Video 1
Video 2
Video 3


Be sure to also check out the separate Li Lu interview we posted here.

The transcript of Munger's interview (in Chinese) is here.  H/T to @TaoValue for posting the videos.

Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Interview: China's Weekly on Stocks

Li Lu of Himalaya Capital was recently interviewed by Chinese media Weekly on Stocks.  If you're unfamiliar, Lu is Charlie Munger's investment partner in China and Munger has invested in Lu's fund for quite some time.  Charlie Munger was also interviewed, and we posted that up separately.


Li Lu Interview With Weekly on Stocks (China)

Li Lu on Munger/Buffett: "And so it is precisely their indifferent attitude towards personal interests that they have achieved such a long term performance success."  "Everyone is envious of Berkshire but no one is willing to learn their indifference to personal interests."

Lu on his fund:  He charges no management fee and has a 6% hurdle, modeled after the original Buffett partnerships.

Lu on investing:  "The investment itself is a prediction.  The prediction is indeed the result of a comprehensive combination of capabilities.  How to perform is the extension of conduct, so one's character, knowledge, and mentality really affect the long-term results.  There is no doubt about this."

"If you do this simply for the purpose of making money, it is almost impossible to achieve extraordinary long-term performance."

"Instead the key is that the most important thing for investment is to invest in anything you know and to avoid anything you don't know."

On the ongoing evolution of China's market:  "Three transformations: indirect finance to direct finance, debt dominance to equity dominance, and policy finance to market finance.  Then the whole financial market is gradually transformed from a disordered state like a gambling house to a relatively long term rational and sound decision."

On good investor characteristics:  "An excellent investor indeed should be honest to knowledge but not to the opinions of others.  Indeed this is actually somewhat against the humanity for us as social animals.  Indeed it is like this for us it is very important whether our evidence and logic is correct than whether others agree with you is not so important... An excellent investor has somewhat anti-human characteristics."

"The most important part in investment is objectivity and reasonability.  And the second is a deep understanding of intellectual honesty... That is to know what you really understand."


Embedded below are the videos:

Video 1


Video 2



For more on Li Lu, be sure to also check out a previous Columbia Business School interview with Li Lu.

H/T to @TaoValue for posting the videos.

Lone Pine Capital Increases Wynn Resorts Stake

Steve Mandel's hedge fund firm Lone Pine Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding its position in Wynn Resorts (WYNN).  Per the filing, Lone Pine now owns 5.4% of the company with over 5.95 million shares.

This is up from the 3.79 million shares they owned at the end of the second quarter of this year. The filing was made due to portfolio activity on September 10th.

Wynn Resorts owns, operates, and develops casino resorts, primarily in Las Vegas, Nevada and in Macau.

Capitalize For Kids Investors Conference: 85% Sold Out

The 2018 Capitalize for Kids Investors Conference is only two months away and is now 85% sold out.  The lineup features world-renowned investing minds including Bob Prince, Co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates, David Rubenstein of The Carlyle Group, Jeff Ubben of ValueAct Capital, Ed Garden of Trian Fund Management, Jeffrey Smith of Starboard Value, and many more.

In total, more than $1.5 million will be raised to build capacity in the youth mental health sector.  The event takes place on October 24th & 25th in Toronto.

Learn more and register:  https://www.capitalizeforkids.org/conference/

Embedded below is a one-pager for the event

Warren Buffett Interview: Bought More Apple, Berkshire Buys Back Stock

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway was just interviewed by Becky Quick on CNBC.  Here's a summary of his thoughts:

He notes he bought a little more Apple (AAPL) recently.  He doesn't care about one quarter or one year's worth of iPhones sold.  He'd obviously like to see each product cycle do well, but he notes he's mainly viewing the company as an indispensible utility.  He argues that the value you get on a daily basis for only $1000 (price of an iPhone) it's a no-brainer.  People are so attached to their devices and use them for so many different things.  He doesn't own an iPhone but has an iPad and uses it frequently.  Would love to see the stock pullback as he could buy more or the company could buyback more stock at cheaper levels.

Berkshire hasn't been buying more airline stocks mainly because he doesn't want to go over the 10% ownership threshold in them, and he has to trim them if the companies are buying back stock.

Buffett said that consumer packaged goods are a good business from a return on tangible assets perspective.  While he acknowledged the businesses have seen increased competition and changing consumer tastes, they're still a good place to be.  He likes brands but is aware it's a tougher environment than it used to be, especially with the stocks much higher these days.  When asked about Campbells (CPB), he said Berkshire wouldn't be interested but he couldn't really speak for Kraft Heinz (KHC).  He said it's very hard to offer a premium for a packaged goods company.

Berkshire bought a little bit of its stock recently, Buffett notes.  They removed the previous restriction of a multiple of book value.  They're now looking at it from an intrinsic business value perspective.

"The economy since the fall of 2009 has gotten progressively better, but it started from a very low base.  We've had 9 full years of improvement in business. Business is good, across the board."

Noted that stocks are better than bonds and real estate.

He's seeing inflation in input costs on raw materials.  It's hard to say if that's due to the tariff situation or other factors, but he noted it increased certainly over the last year and particularly after the trade war situation.  He specifically noted steel, building materials, as well as paint cans as areas where they're seeing increased costs.

On Fed chairman Jay Powell, Buffett likes him and thinks he's doing a good job and will do what's best for the economy.

13F Filing Summary: New Issue Just Released

Want to find out what stocks top hedge funds have been buying, selling, and shorting?  Our 88-page quarterly newsletter summarizes the latest 13F filings of 25 top hedge funds.

The brand new Q2 issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom is now available.  Subscribers please login at www.hedgefundwisdom.com to download it.


Inside The New Issue


- Investment Thesis Summaries of Lennar (LEN) and NXP Semiconductor (NXPI).  Quickly get up to speed on why managers were buying these stocks in Q2

- New Consensus Buy / Sell Lists: See the most popular stocks among top hedge funds

- Reveals Latest Portfolios of 25 Top Managers: David Tepper, Steve Mandel, Seth Klarman, Chase Coleman, Lee Cooperman and 20 other top investors (full list here)


Subscribe Below To Read It Now

You'll get immediate access to the brand new issue as well as the full archive of past issues.

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Marc Andreessen's Recommended Reading List 2018

If you're looking for some good summer reads, here you go.  Marc Andreessen, founder of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz recently tweeted a list of books he's read and recommends. 

It's a diverse list and isn't filled with finance books like so many other recommended reading lists we post, so this will certainly broaden your horizons.  Here's the list with his tweeted comments about each book.


Marc Andreessen's Recommended Reading List 2018


Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It?  How Can We Know? by Phil Tetlock:  "Is the future knowable, and by whom?  All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't.  What to pay attention to and what to ignore."


Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman:  "Captivating dive into human decision making, marred by inclusion of several/many? psychology studies that fail to replicate.  Will stand as a cautionary tale?"


Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke:  "Compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital.  Best articulation of 'resulting', drawing bad conclusions from confusing process and outcome.  Recommend for people operating in the real world."


The Spider Network by David Enrich: " 'Billions'-esque saga of global financial market manipulation, at mind-boggling scale and hiding in plain sight, by a small cabal of bankers in London."


A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy by William B. Irvine: "Best (?) walk through the ancient/current philosophy of Stoicism.  You can't control other people but you can control yourself, so do that."


The Courage to Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi & Fumitake Koga:  "Smash hit in Japan, and easy to see why.  Adlerian psychology meets Stoic philosophy in Socratic dialogue.  Compelling from front to back.   Highly recommended."


All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain's Political Class by Tim Shipman:  "Inside story of how Britain decided to exit the EU.  Economic self-destruction or national liberation?  Repercussions to play out for decades."


When the Wolves Bite: Two Billionaires, One Company, and an Epic Wall Street Battle by Scott Wapner.  " 'Wall Street'-esque battle between Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn over unlikely target Herbalife.  Sip a delicious Herbal Aloe Shake while reading."


But What If We're Wrong?: Thinking About the Present As If It Were the Past by Chuck Klosterman:  "Wide-ranging meditation on how to think about the reality that we're probably wrong about most things we believe.  Hard to read and not emerge humbled."


Chasing Hillary:  Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling by Amy Chozick:  "On the bus/in the plane with the Hillary campaign.  Revealing in many dimensions at once, and highly entertaining.  Best book on the 2016 campaign so far?"


The Strange Death of Europe by Douglas Murray: "One perspective on the politics of immigration in Europe, playing out in real time, e.g. Merkel almost getting deposed days ago.  Confusing on multiple levels from US perspective."


A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies and Leadership by James Comey:  "Certainly the story is well known, but given author's propensity to post photos of himself wearing running shoes in Iowa, potentially relevant again starting next year?"


Conspiracy:  Peter Thiel, Hulk Hogan, Gawker, and the Anatomy of Intrigue by Ryan Holiday: "Startlingly deep cultural history of conspiracies, examined through the lens of the brutally effective Gawker takedown, with full access to the main players."


Skin in the Game by Nicholas Taleb:  "Skin in the game as conflict of interest, or as attaching one's livelihood to one's speech?  Who to listen to, and why.  Ideal counterpart to Phil Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment."


12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos by Jordan Peterson: "A bracing disassembly and reconstruction of a theory of individual progress in the modern world.  Fascinating compare and contrast with The Courage To Be Disliked."


Slugfest: Inside the Epic, 50-year Battle between Marvel and DC by Reed Tucker: "Spellbinding creative and business history of the incredibly imaginative comic book industry in the decades before it ate Hollywood."


Hacks: The Inside Story of the Break-ins and Breakdowns That Put Donald Trump in the White House by Donna Brazile: "Visceral, raw, you-are-there recounting of living through the hack attacks and resulting meltdown of the DNC in 2016."


Days of Rage: America's Radical Underground, the FBI, and the Forgotten Age of Revolutionary Violence by Bryan Burrough: "How 1960s racial politics descended into 1970s terrorist bombings, thanks to privileged college students breaking very bad."


Civilian Warriors: The Inside Story of Blackwater by Erik Prince: "The founding and growth of military contractor Blackwater as told by its founder and CEO; newly relevant due to the Mueller investigation."


The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance by Steve Kotler: "Startling walk through a series of domains where peak human performance is rising at remarkable rates due to 'flow state'.  Thought provoking and then some."


Devil's Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency by Joshua Green: "Best (?) book so far on the Republican side of the 2016 race, and a deep dive into the intellectual origins of Bannonism and to some extent Trumpism."


Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign by Jonathan Allen & Amie Parnes: "Best (?) book so far on the Democratic side of the 2016 race, most provocatively on the impact of the press coverage of the email hacks on the last stages of the race."


Living with a SEAL: 31 Days Training with the Toughest Man on the Planet by Jesse Itzler: "What's it like to train with a Navy SEAL in winter in New York for a whole month?  Featuring the truly remarkable American hero David Goggins."


The Myth of the Rational Voter by Bryan Caplan: "The median American is a moderate national socialist - statist to the core on both economic and social policy.  Given public opinion, the policies of First World democracies are surprisingly libertarian."


A Very Expensive Poison: The Assassination of Alexander Litvinenko by Luke Harding: "The astonishing story of the Litvinenko and Perepilichnyy assassinations in the UK; reads like a Lee Child thriller; plenty topical now."


Lone Survivor: The Eyewitness Account of Operation Redwing and the Lost Heroes of SEAL Team 10 by Marcus Luttrell: "The film was fine but the book is unreal; incredibly vivid story of superlative American heroes."


How to Live: A Life of Montaigne in One Question and Twenty Attempts at an Answer by Sarah Blakewell: " 'How to get along with people, how to deal with violence, how to adjust to losing someone you love - All versions of a bigger question: How do you live?' "



If you're looking for even more books, be sure to also check out Ray Dalio's recommended reading list, as well as Mohnish Pabrai's recommended reading list, or any of the others we've linked on the right sidebar of the MarketFolly homepage.

Howard Marks' New Memo: Investing Without People

Oaktree Capital's Chairman Howard Marks has penned his latest memo.  It is entitled Investing Without People and talks about the evolution of the markets with the increasing presence of index/passive investing, quant strategies, and machine learning/AI.

Marks writes,

"When people invest more in certain stocks than others, the prices of those stocks rise in relative terms. And when everyone decides to refrain from performing the functions of analysis, price discovery and capital allocation, the appropriateness of market prices can go out the window (as a result of passive investing, just as it does in a mindless boom or bust). The bottom line is that the wisdom of investing passively depends, ironically, on some people investing actively. When active investing is dismissed totally and all active efforts cease, passive investing will become imprudent and opportunities for superior returns from active investing will reemerge. At least that’s the way I see it."

He then concedes that computers can do many things better than investors. But at the same time he notes that, "Computers can do an unmatched job dealing with the things that can be counted: things that are quantitative and objective. But many other things – qualitative, subjective things – count for a great deal, and I doubt computers can do what the very best investors do."

Marks' Upcoming New Book

Also, it was recently revealed that Marks has a new book coming out in a few months entitled Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting The Odds On Your Side.

Marks' Latest Memo

Embedded below is Howard Marks' new memo, Investing Without People



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Julian Robertson Interview: FANG Stocks Not Frothy At All

Tiger Management founder Julian Robertson was recently interviewed by CNBC.  Here's a summary and the full video below:

- When asked about Paul Tudor Jones' recent comments about stocks heading higher into year-end, Robertson said that, "I think there's a very good chance of that happening (in the next year) and I'm positioned accordingly."

-  He thinks it's possible that interest rates go up so high so fast that the Fed would have to ease up a bit.  But doesn't think rates will go 'wildly' up

- Says the President has done a reasonably good job, but could do with a dose of humility

- Tax cuts have helped corporate earnings but also the earnings of the middle class tremendously

- Feels a slowdown is at least 6 months and 'hopefully' 2 years away

- Tech stocks: he doesn't think FANG stocks are frothy at all, especially relative to the rest of the market. This is one area where he feels he differs in opinion from a lot of market participants.  Adds Microsoft (MSFT) to that bunch as these stocks have growth rates similar to their multiples

-  He likes the management at many of these companies, Facebook etc

-  Air Canada at 3x next year's cashflow is not an expensive stock and is 'beautifully run'.  Also likes Ryanair in Europe.  Doesn't really have any airline favorites in the US right now

-  Loves the banks, thinks they're very reasonably priced in relation to earnings.  Huge cashflow yields next year and thereafter.  Thinks they're in terrific shape, likes JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC)

-  Would tell grandchildren to own FB, BAC, JPM, probably Citigroup (C), which is 'reasonably priced'

Embedded below is the video of Julian Robertson's CNBC interview:

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